The latest guidance still suggests that Tuesday could be an impressive severe weather day for the Deep South and Southern Atlantic Seaboard.  What is so concerning to me is that the computer models have been extremely consistent on bringing all of these ingredients together for several days, and in many ways the parameters are improving as the event draws closer.

Now is a good time to start thinking about severe weather plans.  Do your children know what to do if they are home alone?  Does your place of work have a plan?  Do you have a NOAA Weather Radio?  If not, you can pick one of those up beginning Monday at any Publix for a discounted price of $29.99.  News 2 and Publix are providing these radios at a discount as a public service to Lowcountry residents.  Remember…  many areas in the Lowcountry do not have tornado sirens…  To steal Rob’s quote:  “this radio is your own personal tornado siren.“  If an event were to happen in the middle of the night, we can’t turn your TV on for you and let you know what’s coming…  The radio will wake you up!

Now that I’m off of my weather radio soap box, I would like to say there are still many unanswered questions pertaining to the evolution of this storm system.  The way it looks right now, I think we have a good possibility (I’m not ready to call it a probability) of seeing some severe thunderstorms.  Here is the forecast for now, but remember, this will be changing as the details of the system’s evolution become clear…

1)  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the afternoon hours on Tuesday… prime-time for thunderstorm development
2) Very powerful winds, on the order of 130 knots or greater will be flowing at a height of about 30-40 thousand feet over the Lowcountry Tuesday afternoon…  Any thunderstorms or even heavy rain cells can grab these winds and push them toward the ground.
3)  We will also have very strong sustained winds over the Lowcountry at the surface out of the SE that could reach 40 mph at times…  When you factor in gusts, we could see readings higher than 50…  These are wind speeds outside of thunderstorms!
4)  With winds coming out of the SE at the surface then changing direction and increasing in speed with height, conditions COULD become favorable for isolated tornadoes…  The best threat for long-track violent tornadoes exists to our west over Alabama and Georgia.
5) As it stands right now…  our biggest threat from any severe thunderstorms that develop appears to be destructive straight-line winds…

Rob, Joey and I will be on top of this all weekend long and into the first part of next week.  Keep checking in with us on News 2 and right here on the blog for the latest…