Wow.  That’s about the only word I can come up with to describe the past 10 days.  What a way to start the new year huh?

By the way, a few verification issues to point out from this last surge of Arctic air Friday through Sunday.  Friday’s high was 49 at CHS, which occurred before daybreak.  We fell into the upper 30s by mid-morning and my forecast was for us to hold steady through the day.  Well that didn’t happen, I was wrong.  We actually rose back into the middle 40s due to the Arctic air mass moving slower than anticipated and abundant sunshine.  The air mass quickly moved in Friday night with low temperatures in the 20s on Saturday morning.  The high at CHS on Saturday was 37.  The forecast: upper 30s… from 7 days out…  So check…  Sunday morning’s low was 18, the forecast called for upper teens 7 days out… check.  Sunday’s high was 42.  The forecast called for upper 30s to near 40 7 days out, so check minus.  Overall I will give my forecast a B+ because of the big flub on Friday and the slight deviation on Sunday.  I do want to point something out again though.  The forecasts on the point and click sites from a certain weather entity and from the weather supersites were way off on even a 12-24 hour forecast.  On Saturday morning, some forecasts were still advertising lower to middle 40s for daytime highs on Saturday.  It goes back to what I was discussing last week about pattern recognition, model bias recognition, and understanding the physical processes that occur when you introduce Arctic air into the system. Although I did blow Friday’s forecast, but I’m not sure anyone noticed because it was still cold, but I think it is important to point out those errors.

As of this morning, we are running 12.8 degrees below average for the month so far at CHS with below average temps expected to continue through Wednesday.  By Thursday, we should see highs around the seasonal average, which is 59, and go beyond that on Friday into the lower 60s.  Can you believe we are getting excited about 50s?  In Charleston?  Well, I am and I think many of you are too.

So the next question presented…  Is this the last of winter?  I think the answer is a resounding NO!  The pattern is such that we will likely experience cold periods just like the one we are coming out of again this winter.  So don’t let your guard down.  My guess is we will have another round of cold temperatures by the first of February.  It is a long way out, we will keep an eye on it and give you as much of a heads up as possible.