Hurricane lovers are likely in heaven right now after seeing what this coming week will likely have to offer in the tropics.  We have Ana, a wimpy little system headed toward the Leeward Islands.  But don’t give up on her just yet, she may come back in a big way once she makes it to the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.  Claudette will make landfall tonight along the Florida Panhandle and will likely dump buckets of rain for days across portions of the Deep South.  Bill will be a monster by Tuesday or Wednesday, and then another system looks to develop behind Bill from a wave that will rocket off of Africa over the next day or two.

Lets go back to Bill.  This one needs the most attention for two reasons.  Number one, it will become a monster storm and number two because it is in an area with a favorable track to POSSIBLY affect the US.  Right now, a good bit of the track guidance is swinging the storm harmlessly out to sea.  That is the solution I’m rooting for and I hope the guidance is correct (see my comments on Friday’s blog about my disdain for hurricanes). 

One of my Facebook friends, Angela, posed the question of based on the guidance trends is she safe in assuming there is no threat.  I would love to say yes, but I’m saying no and here’s why.  The guidance is indeed shoving this storm out to sea in about 5-7 days, but for the computer models this can be a pretty unreliable time frame for accuracy. 

Guidance is suggesting a trough will establish itself over the eastern US and will act as a blockade against any attack from the tropics.  It doesn’t seem too far fetched.  It seems like all summer long we have been dealing with these troughs.  Thats why we’ve only experienced a couple of really hot spells and we’ve been seeing what seems like a lot of unsettled weather.  Here’s my concern though.  I’m worried that the trough may not come as far south and east as the guidance is suggesting and Bill may not come as far north at the same time to make the connection with the trough and turn out over the Atlantic.  We will just have to wait and see.

Here is the bottom line:  5-7 day tropical forecasts should be used as a general idea, not fact.  It only takes a small deviation in the track/strength of Bill and the placement/strength of the trough to completely change the forecast.  I’m hoping the guidance is right.  If you go back and read Friday’s post you will quickly learn that I am no fan of hurricanes.  If you have ever met me in person and the topic is brought up you will probably understand my disdain for these storms even more.

Take care and I’ll see you in the morning.