http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/ en jmarthers@wcbd.com Copyright 2010 2010-03-08T22:58:17-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/spring_preview_winter_may_not_be_done_just_yet/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/spring_preview_winter_may_not_be_done_just_yet/#When:21:58:17Z Temperatures will be much warmer this week, but will it last?My worst fear out of this week’s weather is that everybody is going to get all excited about winter being finished.  Even I have to admit, the thought of 70 + is pretty darn exciting, but I just can’t shake this feeling I have.  I just don’t think we can bet against this winter just yet. You know, it’s kind of like a horror movie, the killer always comes back for one last scare, except in this case I have a gut feeling Old Man Winter is going to pay us another visit.  Cold has been king all winter long and there is no reason to move away from that just yet. Just looking at some of the long range guidance, I’m seeing hints of a return to 7-12 degrees below average for a period of time next week and then perhaps for the end of the month as well.  Obviously this is subject to change, but the idea that I have combined with the guidance seeing hints of another cool off in our future, leads me to believe we may not have seen the end of winter just yet. With that being said, spring is fast approaching, and with higher sun angles, longer days, and warming ocean waters, Old Man Winter won’t be able to fight back much longer.  He’s gotta come at us in the next two to three weeks or else he has an uphill battle.  Once past April 1, I like the odds of those warm winds of the south over the cold winds of the north. Take care and I’ll see you in the morning. Personal 2010-03-08T21:58:17-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/below_average_temps_then_warmer_then_what/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/below_average_temps_then_warmer_then_what/#When:21:26:39Z Once it warms up this weekend and early next week, don't count Old Man Winter out just yet.I’m sick of cold weather, there I said it.  It seems like we’ve been talking about colder than average temps for 5 months!  Guess what? We have!  Go back to October.  It was a cold month.  November was alright and a good part of December was too, and then there was January, especially the first two weeks.  Don’t forget about February’s snow and the stretch of below average days that lasted nearly the entire month it seemed.  Now here we are in March and it looks like nature is going to tease us a little.  By Sunday, we should be cruising right along to hit 65 and then maybe even 70 on Monday depending on how much of a southwest wind we can catch. Trends show that the middle of March could be just fine with temps right around average and precip at those levels too. Of course, there will be some swings, but in general, it’s looking okay. It is the last two weeks of the month that have me wincing as it looks like Old Man Winter may come back at us with more cold weather and more storms.  It is way too early to tell the specifics, but guidance is indicating another cold snap.  Will it make it this far south?  Lets hope not, but don’t count out the pattern that has been running the table all season long. Personal 2010-03-03T21:26:39-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/february_verification_march_forecast/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/february_verification_march_forecast/#When:20:01:28Z Check out the stats from February and other ramblings on the winter.Well, the month is over and it was a February to remember.  Before we verify, here is the February forecast published on the Marthers Blog on February 2.——————————— Moving on to February, it looks like the general idea of colder than average temperatures with above average precipitation is a pretty safe bet once again.  Guidance suggests we will likely stay in the pattern we’ve been in over the past week through next week.  After that there are indications that another extreme outbreak of cold could impact the United States.  It is too early to tell if this outbreak will be as cold relative to average or as long in duration as the one experienced the first two weeks of January.  The active storm track is expected to continue through the rest of the winter which will likely maintain above average precipitation values. FEBRUARY FORECAST TEMPERATURE: COLDER THAN AVERAGE (-2.0 to -4.0 F) PRECIPITATION: ABOVE AVERAGE (+1.5” to +2.5”) ———————————- I would say that temperature forecast verified and then some.  In fact we were even colder.  At the Charleston Airport, we experienced the coldest February in at least 30 years with the average monthly temperature sitting at 45.9 degrees.  This is 4.8 degrees below normal.  In Downtown Charleston, the average monthly temperature was 46.7 degrees which is 5.7 degrees below average.  This is the 14th coldest February in Downtown since records began in 1893. The precipitation forecast did not verify.  In fact we ended up .47” below the monthly average.  It felt like it was wetter because we maintained the active storm track, however, most of the systems produced light to moderate rain instead of those powerful downpours experienced in December and January.  Although February seemed like a wet month, as far as the numbers are concerned, it wasn’t. This is the end of “meteorological” winter which is DEC-JAN-FEB.  Although temperatures are beginning to warm as spring draws near, we are still going to begin the month of March significantly cooler than average.  In fact, this week looks just as cold compared to the averages as last week.  We will begin to warm by the weekend, but it is uncertain how long the warmer weather will last.  An active storm track suggests that increased cloud cover and rain chances could significantly impact the monthly temperature means. MARCH FORECAST TEMPERATURE: -0.5 to -2.5 degrees BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION:  +0.5 to +1 inch ABOVE AVERAGE Personal 2010-03-01T20:01:28-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/not_as_strong_but_still_a_big_storm/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/not_as_strong_but_still_a_big_storm/#When:00:31:42Z The storm affecting the northeast is not as strong as we thought it might become, but it is still packing a punch.Just a quick update on the big storm in the northeast.  Some adjustments to yesterday’s forecast. Here is what is expected now: - 30-50 MPH sustained winds—gusts to 60 (lower than originally forecast) - Snowfall: 3-6” near PHL, 8-15” NYC, 2ft in the Catskills, Mostly rain in BOS Still extremely disruptive and will last through at least late Friday, possibly Saturday. Personal 2010-02-26T00:31:42-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/history_making_storm/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/history_making_storm/#When:22:13:52Z Attention weather fans! The most severe blizzard of the year, perhaps in decades, is on the way to the northeastern US. (image courtesy of weather.com) Wow.  Just when you think you’ve seen it all this winter, another curve ball is thrown.  Let’s summarize the winter so far. At the top of the list, 5-8” of snow in the Charleston Tri-county!  Below average temperatures, including a stretch of days lasting nearly two weeks where every night was below freezing across the entire viewing area, three blizzards in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and record snowfalls across the Deep South. At face value, all of the above would be quite impressive, but hold on a minute, Old Man Winter says he’s not finished yet. We are about to witness what could be the most severe blizzard experienced in the United States not only this year but possibly decades.  By severe, I mean a combination of snow, wind, and atmospheric pressure.  It is looking more and more like this storm’s pressure will fall to the strength of a Category 1 hurricane with 20 foot waves along portions of the northeastern US coast driven by 50-60 mile per hour winds.  Gusts could easily exceed hurricane force.  A heavy, wet snow, very similar to what caused our power outages a couple of weeks ago, will fall across much of the region and will be measured in feet in many spots. From a meteorology stand point, this is the “perfect” set up for a major event that will be discussed for years and years.  The damage caused by this storm could make the other three blizzards of the season look like child’s play.  If you are a weather fan, you will be in paradise over the next few days. Personal 2010-02-24T22:13:52-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/a_long_way_away_but_worth_mentioning/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/a_long_way_away_but_worth_mentioning/#When:21:44:48Z Lets talk about the opposite of cold weather, the tropics!I know it seems like light years away, but hurricane season is just around the corner. Ideas are already circulating among the meteorological community, and I don’t like them at all.  Based off of what I’m hearing, and the data I see in front of me, we could be in for one heck of a season. El Nino will be fading quickly, long range guidance is indicating lots of upward motion, and sea surface temperatures could be anomalously warm compared to 2009.  All of this leads to the possibility of a very active 2010 season.  We will know more in the coming months, but get ready, we could be putting those tracking charts to use this year! Personal 2010-02-23T21:44:48-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/cold_returns/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/cold_returns/#When:22:41:04Z Another shot of cold air will be on the table later this week.Here we go again.  Expect temps on Thursday and Friday to be 12-15 degrees below the seasonal averages, which are now in the middle 60s.  We just can’t get rid of Old Man Winter this year.  We are still sitting at only 5 days this year of 70 degrees or better, compared to the past few years when we saw those days numbered in the teens or even twenties. I wish I had some good news, but I just don’t.  Everything I see points to a general below average pattern through the middle of March.  All I know is I’m ready for summer! 6-10 Day Temp Trend Personal 2010-02-22T22:41:04-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/searching_for_70_degrees/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/searching_for_70_degrees/#When:22:33:59Z It seems like 70 has been a really hard number to find this year. I was amazed when I looked through the daily temperature records since January 1.  Can you believe we have only hit 70 degrees or better 5 times since January 1?  Of course you can, we’ve lived it.  So how does this compare to other years? The data below was compiled from daily temperature records from the months of January and February.  Remember, the 5 “70 degree days” above are valid from January 1 to right now.  Days of 70 degrees or above 2010 (through today)—5 2009—13 2008—21 2007—18 2006—13 That just feels like a slap in the face huh?  Think about it, even if we hit 70 degrees everyday through the end of the month, we still couldn’t touch 2008 or 2007.  Here’s more salt for the wound.  That 2010 number may stay at 5.  Guidance today has backed off of the warmth for Sunday and Monday, not much, but enough to cast doubt on the idea we may hit 70 early next week.  After that, most indications are showing the Emperor of the North will take over the pattern again, possibly bringing the coldest temperatures relative to average for this time of year in nearly 30 years to portions of the lower 48. It is a little too early to tell if a blockbuster cold air mass will make it this far south.  However, if current trends verify, there is a lot more winter ahead over the next few weeks. Personal 2010-02-17T22:33:59-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/lake_erie_frozen/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/lake_erie_frozen/#When:22:11:53Z For the first time in about 14 years, Lake Erie is almost completely covered in ice.AccuWeather.com is reporting that the entire surface of Lake Erie is almost covered with ice for the first time in 14 years.  Reports are the ice ranges in thickness from around paper thin on the northern shore to several inches along the southern shore.  GoErie.com is reporting that the lake hasn’t completely frozen since the winter of 1995-1996. Lake Erie is the most shallow of the five Great Lakes, which is why it is the only one that completely freezes over.  Based off of the pattern ahead, Lake Erie will likely remain mostly, if not completely, frozen through the rest of February and perhaps into March. Personal 2010-02-16T22:11:53-05:00 http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/is_more_snow_in_our_future/ http://www.counton2extras.com/index.php/marthersBlog/is_more_snow_in_our_future/#When:22:13:03Z If the pattern produced snow on Friday, can it do it again?We started talking about the winter pattern back in September and October as having a very cold and wet look.  On News 2 Today, we even highlighted the possibility of snow in places that rarely see it.  Well, we are one of those places, and as you all know, we saw it, and a lot of it in some spots.  So the question I issue is can it happen again?  The answer, quite bluntly is YES!  Yes, it can and here’s why. The pattern is expected to generally be the same over the next several weeks.  It appears we will get a break as we head into next weekend, and by break I mean temperatures may approach (notice the “may”) seasonal averages which are in the lower 60s.  However, by the middle of next week, watch out!  The Emperor of the North will come back and it looks like another pocket of unseasonably cold temperatures will set up over the eastern US as we close February and open March.  Now, will this set up over the Carolinas?  It is a little too early to tell, but based off of what we’ve seen all season long, I really have no reason to believe we won’t be affected.  What is the recipe for snow?  Cold air and moisture.  The active storm track will likely resume by the end of next week after we see a break over the next 5-7 days.  Will all of the ingredients come together just right again?  It’s too early to know and anybody who tries to give you the answer is selling you junk.  Here’s what you need to remember though.  If the pattern produced a snowstorm once, who is to say it can’t do it again.  Just look at the back to back blizzards last week in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Then think back to December 21 when a blizzard struck virtually the same areas.  The pattern hasn’t changed so the possibility is there (although highly unlikely just based off of our climatology) we could have a repeat performance of Friday’s snow before the winter of 2009-2010 is finished with its icy grip. Check out the charts below.  I think they say it best.  The first map is the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center followed by the precip outlook.  Interesting look huh? Personal 2010-02-15T22:13:03-05:00