State Lawmakers are debating a bill to ban texting while driving. Clemson council members did ban it and Mt. Pleasant town council is also considering a ban. The city of Charleston is now the latest to consider the ban, but one concern how will law enforcement enforce it?

I’m all about making it illegal to text and drive because it’s a huge problem. Just this week a women in South Carolina killed another driving because she cross the center line while reading a text message. The story didn’t say anything about possible charges, but drivers should definitely be held more accountable for accidents and injuries caused by texting while driving. I just got a bluetooth and am ecstatic. I hate talking on the phone during long commutes. Plus…if I’m cooking or doing things around the house…I can pop it on and still get stuff done. Now worries about cell phones and brain cancer…that’s another whole issue!

I don’t think anyone out there would say texting while driving (TWD) is a good thing. If you do, please hit the ‘x’ at the upper right of your browser!

However, the thing about TWD bans appears to be the inability for cops to enforce it. An officer can say you were texting, but how do you prove it? Confiscate the phone, run phone records? Some politicians I have talked to say that’s not acceptable.

I have a problem with that, and here’s why…and feel free to disagree;

When an officer suspects a driver is drunk, under the influence while driving…the actual prosecution of the crime can take months/years in some cases. That didn’t stop us from making it illegal. Some officers I know say, they can have dashcam video of the stop that clearly shows someone is plastered, and they still get out of it.

The enforceability argument is flimsy at best. Tell me your stomach doesn’t drop when a cop pulls in behind you with his lights on. Sometimes fear is enough to get someone to correct a behavior, be it speeding, or TWD. Especially when it comes to teens who are the worst drivers as it is. Just getting pulled over and scared half to death by an officer could be enough to get them to put down the phone. Tack on a letter to the parents and you may have something.

It’s just an idea…I’m sure someone in a position of power, and much smarter than me can poke holes in my suggestion, so I would love to hear it!

I just may hear it tonight. The City of Charleston is reportedly about to become the latest municipality to propose a TWD ban. The Town of Mt. Pleasant is two rounds of yes votes away, and some say they should let the state make a decision first.

Do you think they should wait?

My worst fear out of this week’s weather is that everybody is going to get all excited about winter being finished.  Even I have to admit, the thought of 70 + is pretty darn exciting, but I just can’t shake this feeling I have.  I just don’t think we can bet against this winter just yet.

You know, it’s kind of like a horror movie, the killer always comes back for one last scare, except in this case I have a gut feeling Old Man Winter is going to pay us another visit.  Cold has been king all winter long and there is no reason to move away from that just yet.

Just looking at some of the long range guidance, I’m seeing hints of a return to 7-12 degrees below average for a period of time next week and then perhaps for the end of the month as well.  Obviously this is subject to change, but the idea that I have combined with the guidance seeing hints of another cool off in our future, leads me to believe we may not have seen the end of winter just yet.

With that being said, spring is fast approaching, and with higher sun angles, longer days, and warming ocean waters, Old Man Winter won’t be able to fight back much longer.  He’s gotta come at us in the next two to three weeks or else he has an uphill battle.  Once past April 1, I like the odds of those warm winds of the south over the cold winds of the north.

Take care and I’ll see you in the morning.

What a great two weekends of weather.  It’s time to say buh-bye to the winter blues!

Friday night kicked off the start of the art walks downtown.  Lots of people were strolling the streets and filling up the restaurants.

I had the pleasure of visiting the tasting tent at the Wine and Food fest Saturday morning. The Lowcountry was buzzing with visitors and locals soaking in the sun and wine and enjoying great food.  I was pretty much downtown all day for work events and King Street was PACKED!

Spring is alive in the Lowcountry!  Next up…Flowertown and the Bridge Run!

Are you also responsible for what your children eat?

When a South Carolina woman lost custody of her 14 year-old son because the boy’s weight hit 555 pounds. People started taking notice.  The arrest warrant alleged that she placed her child in “an unreasonable risk of harm” by allowing his weight to become “serious and threatening to his health.” The boy was put in foster care.

The attorney for the South Carolina mother says convicting her on criminal charges for her son’s obesity will open a Pandora’s Box of issues way beyond the immediate issue.

“What about the parents of every 16 year-old in Beverly Hills that’s too thin? Are they going to start arresting parents because their child is too thin?” the attorney asked. “If your 14 year-old goes down the street and gets pregnant or breaks the neighbor’s window or steals the neighbor’s car, can the parents now be held criminally liable for that child’s acts as well?”

Tell me what you think: Should parents be criminally responsible for their obese children? How far should the law go in holding parents directly responsible for any of their children’s behaviors?

I’m sick of cold weather, there I said it.  It seems like we’ve been talking about colder than average temps for 5 months!  Guess what? We have!  Go back to October.  It was a cold month.  November was alright and a good part of December was too, and then there was January, especially the first two weeks.  Don’t forget about February’s snow and the stretch of below average days that lasted nearly the entire month it seemed.  Now here we are in March and it looks like nature is going to tease us a little.  By Sunday, we should be cruising right along to hit 65 and then maybe even 70 on Monday depending on how much of a southwest wind we can catch.

Trends show that the middle of March could be just fine with temps right around average and precip at those levels too. Of course, there will be some swings, but in general, it’s looking okay.

It is the last two weeks of the month that have me wincing as it looks like Old Man Winter may come back at us with more cold weather and more storms.  It is way too early to tell the specifics, but guidance is indicating another cold snap.  Will it make it this far south?  Lets hope not, but don’t count out the pattern that has been running the table all season long.

Well, the month is over and it was a February to remember.  Before we verify, here is the February forecast published on the Marthers Blog on February 2.
———————————
Moving on to February, it looks like the general idea of colder than average temperatures with above average precipitation is a pretty safe bet once again.  Guidance suggests we will likely stay in the pattern we’ve been in over the past week through next week.  After that there are indications that another extreme outbreak of cold could impact the United States.  It is too early to tell if this outbreak will be as cold relative to average or as long in duration as the one experienced the first two weeks of January.  The active storm track is expected to continue through the rest of the winter which will likely maintain above average precipitation values.

FEBRUARY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE: COLDER THAN AVERAGE (-2.0 to -4.0 F)
PRECIPITATION: ABOVE AVERAGE (+1.5” to +2.5”)

———————————-

I would say that temperature forecast verified and then some.  In fact we were even colder.  At the Charleston Airport, we experienced the coldest February in at least 30 years with the average monthly temperature sitting at 45.9 degrees.  This is 4.8 degrees below normal.  In Downtown Charleston, the average monthly temperature was 46.7 degrees which is 5.7 degrees below average.  This is the 14th coldest February in Downtown since records began in 1893.

The precipitation forecast did not verify.  In fact we ended up .47” below the monthly average.  It felt like it was wetter because we maintained the active storm track, however, most of the systems produced light to moderate rain instead of those powerful downpours experienced in December and January.  Although February seemed like a wet month, as far as the numbers are concerned, it wasn’t.

This is the end of “meteorological” winter which is DEC-JAN-FEB.  Although temperatures are beginning to warm as spring draws near, we are still going to begin the month of March significantly cooler than average.  In fact, this week looks just as cold compared to the averages as last week.  We will begin to warm by the weekend, but it is uncertain how long the warmer weather will last.  An active storm track suggests that increased cloud cover and rain chances could significantly impact the monthly temperature means.

MARCH FORECAST
TEMPERATURE: -0.5 to -2.5 degrees BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION:  +0.5 to +1 inch ABOVE AVERAGE

Here is the official public information statement from the National Weather Service in Charleston…..

...THE COLDEST FEBRUARY IN AT LEAST 30 YEARS…

FEBRUARY 2010 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDER FEBRUARYS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH WAS AT ITS
COLDEST IN 30 TO 32 YEARS.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY…

CHARLESTON AIRPORT…45.9 DEGREES. NORMAL IS 50.7 DEGREES.
THIS IS COLDEST FEBRUARY SINCE 1980 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS ALSO 45.9 DEGREES. THIS TIES FOR THE 9TH COLDEST FEBRUARY
SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1938.

SAVANNAH AIRPORT…46.2 DEGREES. NORMAL IS 52.5 DEGREES. THIS IS
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY SINCE 1978 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS
43.5 DEGREES. THIS MAKES IT THE 5TH COLDEST FEBRUARY SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1874.

DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON…46.7 DEGREES. NORMAL IS 52.4 DEGREES. THIS
IS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY SINCE 1979 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
WAS 45.9 DEGREES. THIS MAKES IT THE 14TH COLDEST FEBRUARY SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893.

WHILE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER…THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF DECEMBER…JANUARY
AND FEBRUARY HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END…THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH FROM
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SUGGESTS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COLD…WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST 3 MONTHS…FROM
DECEMBER 1 2009 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 2010…

CHARLESTON AIRPORT…47.1 DEGREES. NORMAL IS 47.3 DEGREES.
SAVANNAH AIRPORT…..47.9 DEGREES. NORMAL IS 51.0 DEGREES.
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON..48.7 DEGREES. NORMAL IS 48.7 DEGREES.

Jan. 30, 1:18 a.m. EST—Full Wolf Moon.  Amid the zero cold and deep snows of midwinter, the wolf packs howled hungrily outside Indian villages.  It was also known as the Old Moon or the Moon after Yule.  In some tribes this was the Full Snow Moon; most applied that name to the next moon.  The Moon will also arrive at perigee (it’s closest point to Earth on its non-circular orbit) less than three hours later, at 4:04 a.m. EST at a distance of 221,577 mi. (356,593 km.) from Earth.  So this is the biggest full moon of 2010.  Very high ocean tides can be expected during the next two or three days, thanks to the coincidence of perigee with full moon. 

Feb. 28, 11:38 a.m. EST—Full Snow Moon.  Usually the heaviest snows fall in this month.  Hunting becomes very difficult, and hence to some tribes this was the Full Hunger Moon.  .

Mar. 29, 10:25 p.m. EDT—Full Worm Moon.  In this month the ground softens and the earthworm casts reappear, inviting the return of the robins.  The more northern tribes knew this as the Full Crow Moon, when the cawing of crows signals the end of winter, or the Full Crust Moon because the snow cover becomes crusted from thawing by day and freezing at night.  The Full Sap Moon, marking the time of tapping maple trees, is another variation. In 2010 this is also the Paschal Full Moon; the first full Moon of the spring season.  The first Sunday following the Paschal Moon is Easter Sunday, which indeed will be observed six days later on Sunday, April 4.

Apr. 28, 8:18 a.m. EDT—Full Pink Moon.  The grass pink or wild ground phlox is one of the earliest widespread flowers of the spring.  Other names were the Full Sprouting Grass Moon, the Egg Moon, and—among coastal tribes—the Full Fish Moon, when the shad come upstream to spawn.

May 27, 7:07 p.m. EDT—Full Flower Moon.  Flowers are now abundant everywhere.  It was also known as the Full Corn Planting Moon or the Milk Moon.

Jun. 26, 7:30 a.m. EDT—Full Strawberry Moon.  Strawberry picking season peaks during this month.  Europeans called this the Rose Moon. There will be also be a Partial Lunar Eclipse that coincides with moonset from the western and central sections of the US and Canada and coincides with moonrise for parts of eastern Asia. At its maximum the Moon will be overhead for observers in the South Pacific;nearly 54-percent of the Moon’s diameter will become immersed in the Earth’s dark umbral shadow. 

Jul. 25, 9:37 p.m. EDT—Full Buck Moon, when the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur.  It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms being now most frequent.  Sometimes it’s also called the Full Hay Moon. 

Aug. 24, 1:05 p.m. EDT—Full Sturgeon Moon, when this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain is most readily caught.  A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon because when the moon rises it looks reddish through sultry haze, or the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon. Since the Moon arrives at apogee about 12 hours later, this will also be the smallest full moon of 2010.  In terms of apparent size, it will appear 12.3-percent smaller than the full Moon of Jan. 30.

Sep. 23, 5:17 a.m. EDT—Full Harvest Moon. Traditionally, this designation goes to the full moon that occurs closest to the Autumnal (fall) Equinox.  The Harvest Moon usually comes in September, but (on average) once or twice a decade it will fall in early October.  At the peak of the harvest, farmers can work into the night by the light of this moon.  Usually the moon rises an average of 50 minutes later each night, but for the few nights around the Harvest Moon, the moon seems to rise at nearly the same time each night: just 25 to 30 minutes later across the U.S., and only 10 to 20 minutes later for much of Canada and Europe.  Corn, pumpkins, squash, beans, and wild rice—the chief Indian staples—are now ready for gathering.

Oct. 22, 9:36 p.m. EDT—Full Hunters’ Moon.  With the leaves falling and the deer fattened, it’s now time to hunt.  Since the fields have been reaped, hunters can ride over the stubble, and can more easily see the fox, as well as other animals, which can be caught for a thanksgiving banquet after the harvest.

Nov. 21, 12:27 p.m. EST—Full Beaver Moon.  At this point of the year, it’s time to set beaver traps before the swamps freeze to ensure a supply of warm winter furs.  Another interpretation suggests that the name Beaver Full Moon come from the fact that the beavers are now active in their preparation for winter.  It’s also called the Frosty Moon.

Dec. 21, 3:13 a.m. EST—Full Cold Moon. On occasion, this moon was also called the Moon before Yule. December is also the month the winter cold fastens its grip.  Sometimes this moon is referred to as the Full Long Nights Moon and the term “Long Night” Moon is a very appropriate name because the nights are now indeed long and the Moon is above the horizon a long time.  This particular full moon makes its highest arc across the sky because it’s diametrically opposite to the low Sun.  In fact, the moment of the Winter Solstice comes just over 15 hours after this full moon, at 6:38 p.m. EST.

Last, but certainly not least, this will also be the night of a Total Lunar Eclipse. North Americans will have a ringside seat for this event (totality will last 73-minutes) and, depending on your location, will take place either during the middle of the night or during the predawn hours. Observers in Western Europe and western Africa will see the opening stages of the eclipse before the Moon sets; South Americans will see the Moon set either during the total phase or as the Moon emerges from the shadow.  At mid-eclipse, the Moon will appear almost directly overhead for observers in southern California and Baja Mexico.

Just a quick update on the big storm in the northeast.  Some adjustments to yesterday’s forecast.

Here is what is expected now:

- 30-50 MPH sustained winds—gusts to 60 (lower than originally forecast)
- Snowfall: 3-6” near PHL, 8-15” NYC, 2ft in the Catskills, Mostly rain in BOS

Still extremely disruptive and will last through at least late Friday, possibly Saturday.

Mixed Martial Arts is now legal in South Carolina and now the Lowcountry will host it’s first MMA fight tonight in Mount Pleasant.

Do we really need mixed martial arts as a sport? To me it’s basically fight club.  Can’t these guys be boxers?  I cannot and will not watch an MMA fight.  Why do guys like to beat up each other?  Just my thoughts…I’m interested in what you think.

(image courtesy of weather.com)

Wow.  Just when you think you’ve seen it all this winter, another curve ball is thrown.  Let’s summarize the winter so far.

At the top of the list, 5-8” of snow in the Charleston Tri-county!  Below average temperatures, including a stretch of days lasting nearly two weeks where every night was below freezing across the entire viewing area, three blizzards in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and record snowfalls across the Deep South.

At face value, all of the above would be quite impressive, but hold on a minute, Old Man Winter says he’s not finished yet.

We are about to witness what could be the most severe blizzard experienced in the United States not only this year but possibly decades.  By severe, I mean a combination of snow, wind, and atmospheric pressure.  It is looking more and more like this storm’s pressure will fall to the strength of a Category 1 hurricane with 20 foot waves along portions of the northeastern US coast driven by 50-60 mile per hour winds.  Gusts could easily exceed hurricane force.  A heavy, wet snow, very similar to what caused our power outages a couple of weeks ago, will fall across much of the region and will be measured in feet in many spots.

From a meteorology stand point, this is the “perfect” set up for a major event that will be discussed for years and years.  The damage caused by this storm could make the other three blizzards of the season look like child’s play.  If you are a weather fan, you will be in paradise over the next few days.

I spent most of the afternoon watching this, and it’s more gripping than the steroid hearings.

Some of the lawmakers are more accepting of the apologies, and others are taking the opportunity to chastise Akio Toyoda.

I know it seems like light years away, but hurricane season is just around the corner.

Ideas are already circulating among the meteorological community, and I don’t like them at all.  Based off of what I’m hearing, and the data I see in front of me, we could be in for one heck of a season.

El Nino will be fading quickly, long range guidance is indicating lots of upward motion, and sea surface temperatures could be anomalously warm compared to 2009.  All of this leads to the possibility of a very active 2010 season.  We will know more in the coming months, but get ready, we could be putting those tracking charts to use this year!

If women’s ski jumping isn’t an Olympic sport, I highly doubt pole dancing will ever be allowed.

Here’s the story from NBC:

Could an activity usually associated with strip clubs ever be considered an Olympic sport?

That’s the hope of pole dancers across the country, who say they have collected nearly 150,000 thousand signatures to petition the Olympic committee to make pole dancing an Olympic event.

Supporters point to international championships held the past two years and even liken it to other Olympic events.

“I would look to a sport like gymnastics especially with the apparatus type competition they’re on a horizontal bar we’re on a vertical bar,“ said dancer Jasmin Bristow.

Unfortunately for pole dancing supporters it’s too late for the 20-12 games in London ...they’re closed to any new events.

Here we go again.  Expect temps on Thursday and Friday to be 12-15 degrees below the seasonal averages, which are now in the middle 60s.  We just can’t get rid of Old Man Winter this year.  We are still sitting at only 5 days this year of 70 degrees or better, compared to the past few years when we saw those days numbered in the teens or even twenties.

I wish I had some good news, but I just don’t.  Everything I see points to a general below average pattern through the middle of March.  All I know is I’m ready for summer!

6-10 Day Temp Trend

I heard it this morning, and I almost choked on my Cheerios.

Even if the governement won’t say it…what Joe Stack did is terrorism. The 53-year-old flew his plane into an office building in Austin, Texas Friday morning in an attack against the IRS.

While saying that it was “innappropriate” and “wrong”, Stack’s adult daughter told ABC’s Good Morning America that her dad was hero “because now maybe people will listen.“

So, in Samantha Bell’s little world, flying a plane into a building packed with people, who likely had nothing to do with his gripe against the government is heroic. He is no different than the people who blow themselves up in a crowded market in Afghanistan.

Perhaps she needs some time on a couch herself, because turning your plane into a missile is the exact opposite of heroic.  It’s cowardly, and an innocent man is dead because he couldn’t handle his issues.

A bill sponsored by two dozen House members would ban alcohol sales on Christmas Day and Thanksgiving Day.  My thought…what would this accomplish?  What do you think?

I was amazed when I looked through the daily temperature records since January 1.  Can you believe we have only hit 70 degrees or better 5 times since January 1?  Of course you can, we’ve lived it.  So how does this compare to other years?

The data below was compiled from daily temperature records from the months of January and February.  Remember, the 5 “70 degree days” above are valid from January 1 to right now. 

Days of 70 degrees or above
2010 (through today)—5
2009—13
2008—21
2007—18
2006—13

That just feels like a slap in the face huh?  Think about it, even if we hit 70 degrees everyday through the end of the month, we still couldn’t touch 2008 or 2007.  Here’s more salt for the wound.  That 2010 number may stay at 5. 

Guidance today has backed off of the warmth for Sunday and Monday, not much, but enough to cast doubt on the idea we may hit 70 early next week.  After that, most indications are showing the Emperor of the North will take over the pattern again, possibly bringing the coldest temperatures relative to average for this time of year in nearly 30 years to portions of the lower 48. It is a little too early to tell if a blockbuster cold air mass will make it this far south.  However, if current trends verify, there is a lot more winter ahead over the next few weeks.

The gyms are already a little less congested. Many people join a gym or renew fitness goals in the new year.

We’re now a month and a half into the new year. Did you already forget what your resolution was?

I resolved to be more social. I hibernate in the winter. I’m just now working on that one. Then I said I’d work on my road rage, which happy to say that I have. Still have a ways to go though. And finally, I resolved to ....well wait. I forgot my third one! ha ha

AccuWeather.com is reporting that the entire surface of Lake Erie is almost covered with ice for the first time in 14 years.  Reports are the ice ranges in thickness from around paper thin on the northern shore to several inches along the southern shore.  GoErie.com is reporting that the lake hasn’t completely frozen since the winter of 1995-1996.

Lake Erie is the most shallow of the five Great Lakes, which is why it is the only one that completely freezes over.  Based off of the pattern ahead, Lake Erie will likely remain mostly, if not completely, frozen through the rest of February and perhaps into March.

We started talking about the winter pattern back in September and October as having a very cold and wet look.  On News 2 Today, we even highlighted the possibility of snow in places that rarely see it.  Well, we are one of those places, and as you all know, we saw it, and a lot of it in some spots.  So the question I issue is can it happen again?  The answer, quite bluntly is YES!  Yes, it can and here’s why.

The pattern is expected to generally be the same over the next several weeks.  It appears we will get a break as we head into next weekend, and by break I mean temperatures may approach (notice the “may”) seasonal averages which are in the lower 60s.  However, by the middle of next week, watch out!  The Emperor of the North will come back and it looks like another pocket of unseasonably cold temperatures will set up over the eastern US as we close February and open March.  Now, will this set up over the Carolinas?  It is a little too early to tell, but based off of what we’ve seen all season long, I really have no reason to believe we won’t be affected.  What is the recipe for snow?  Cold air and moisture.  The active storm track will likely resume by the end of next week after we see a break over the next 5-7 days.  Will all of the ingredients come together just right again?  It’s too early to know and anybody who tries to give you the answer is selling you junk.  Here’s what you need to remember though.  If the pattern produced a snowstorm once, who is to say it can’t do it again.  Just look at the back to back blizzards last week in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Then think back to December 21 when a blizzard struck virtually the same areas.  The pattern hasn’t changed so the possibility is there (although highly unlikely just based off of our climatology) we could have a repeat performance of Friday’s snow before the winter of 2009-2010 is finished with its icy grip.

Check out the charts below.  I think they say it best.  The first map is the 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center followed by the precip outlook.  Interesting look huh?

If you’ve ever watched HGTV, you’ve probably caught the show “Designed to Sell.“  There are some major mistakes homeowners make when putting their home on the market and for a little bit of sweat and not too much money, you can make simple changes to put a lot of extra cash in your wallet!

HGTV’s Terry Haas just wrote a book on the most common mistakes home-sellers make.  She and her co-author Julie Chalupsky will join me on My News 2 next Wednesday (February 24th) to talk about how you can avoid those mistakes.

Are you selling your home? Do you want free professional advice?  Send in a photo of a room in your home that you’re trying to sell.  Include your name and the location. We’ll show the photos on air and get Terry and Julie’s advice for you, so you can get the biggest bang for your buck and hopefully sell your home quicker with simple changes!

Email me at Tlynn@wcbd.com.  Put “Home for Sale” in the subject line! We just may pick your photo!

I turned on the t.v. Friday night excited to see the start of the coverage of the 2010 Winter Olympics Opening Ceremonies. Instead, I saw the frightful moments before the death of Georgian luger Nodar Kumaritashvili.  Brian Williams did give fair warning about the video coming up, but it was still excruciating to watch him crash, fly over the side and slam into uncovered, un-padded concrete columns, not to mention the bloody photo of somebody giving him mouth-to-mouth.

I didn’t see the video again on Saturday or Sunday thankfully.  The video would be out online for people to watch and people would watch, but should tv stations have shown it on t.v.?

Well, February has been an interesting month.  We’ve seen lots of rain, cold temperatures, and even SNOW!!!!!!!!  Yep, yep, the promise of a cold and wild winter made in the fall right here on the blog is verifying and we still have a way to go.

So far, temperatures are running about 4 degrees below average for the month so far, with some of our reporting stations showing 5-6 degrees below the average monthly temperature to date.  Precip is running about .69 above average for the month so far.  The February forecast issued right here on February 2 was -2 to -4 in the temp department with +1.5” to +2.5”.  So far we are in good shape with the temp forecast, and a bit behind on the precip, but we still have plenty of time to go with an active storm track expected to continue.

For the rest of the month, long range weekly forecasts are showing a continuation of colder than average temperatures over the next three weeks which would take us right on into March.  Precip is expected to be above average as well.

Being invited to the Lace House on the grounds of the South Carolina Governor’s Mansion is an honor.  But Jenny Sanford’s invitation came because of her husband’s less than honorable actions.  She wanted an opportunity to explain in greater detail why she wrote a book about the most private and painful part of her life…the end of her marriage to South Carolina’s Governor Mark Sanford.
I can tell you that I found her down to earth and genuine.  She looks for ways to save money and she makes her kids do chores.  She decided to make a life with a smart handsome fella and he broke her heart.  But this midwestern woman knows the importance of counting her blessings…and if the success of her book is any indication, she will be counting all the way to the bank.

2PM Update
We are still on track for a significant snowstorm for most, if not all, of the Lowcountry.  Freezing levels continue to drop and we should be all snow by 8 PM.

———————-
Can you believe it?  A Winter Storm WARNING for the South Carolina Lowcountry goes into effect at noon as we await the arrival of what could turn out to be a pretty healthy dose of snow later today and tonight. 

Right now,I’m thinking we could see some 6” totals near I-95 with lesser amounts closer to the coast.  We may even see an inch or two on the beach!  Wouldn’t that be something?

Well, here we go again, but this time we will have to keep an eye on something else other than raindrops.  Yep!  We are talking about snow, and a decent amount of it in some areas.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entire area, a very rare occurrence in the Lowcountry of South Carolina.  We may see this upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning by tomorrow morning across portions of the watch area. 

Right now, the ideas from my previous blog entry still are on the table.  I still have some concern that the cold air may not move in as quickly as guidance is suggesting.  However, with that being said, I think most of us will see some snow out of this system tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

The current forecast is for 2-4” west of US 17A, 1-3” between 17A and US 17, with a dusting to an inch east of 17.  With that being said, it is quite possible that some areas could see more snow than currently forecast since some guidance is trying to develop convective bands of snow tomorrow evening.  It is way too early to tell where those bands will set up or even if they develop at all.

We should have a much better handle on this storm by tomorrow morning.

..CHARLESTON AIRPORT   RECORDS GO BACK TO 1938.  HIGHEST DAILY SNOWFALL.
 
1. 6.0 INCHES…DECEMBER 23…1989
2. 5.4 INCHES…FEBRUARY 10…1973
3. 3.7 INCHES…DECEMBER 27…1980
4. 2.1 INCHES…DECEMBER 15…1943
5. 2.0 INCHES…MARCH 4…1969
6. 1.7 INCHES…FEBRUARY 9…1973
7. 1.6 INCHES…FEBRUARY 18…1979
8. 1.5 INCHES…DECEMBER 22…1989
9. 1.3 INCHES…MARCH 2…1980  
  1.3 INCHES…FEBRUARY 22…1968  

LAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT WAS BACK ON   JANUARY 25…2000. AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH   OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. 

Snow is pretty hard to come by in the South but it is even harder to come by across I-10 and I-20.  Well guess what?  Snow will fly through the air all the way to the Gulf of Mexico over the next 12-24 hours and will likely be flying along our beaches by tomorrow night.  I feel pretty confident saying there will be snow falling from the sky at some point tomorrow afternoon through early Saturday morning.  What is a little more difficult to say is how much. 

Guidance is trending in a direction that suggests we will see accumulating snowfall all the way to the coast tomorrow night, however, there are still some pieces of the puzzle that we’re trying to put together.  I think the moisture will be here, the main question revolves around the availability of cold air both aloft and at the surface.  Does the cold air hang back just a bit and allow most of the precip to fall as rain and then briefly change to snow or do we see the storm draw the colder air in faster leading to a longer period of frozen precipitation?  That’s what we’re trying to figure out right now.  I’m still leaning right down the middle, but there are signs we could be moving closer to a little bit of accumulating snow, especially away from the coast.

Just based off of what I see to our south and west, we may very well be on our way to the best chance of snow we’ve had in a while.  Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for Mobile and Pensacola and Winter Storm Watches are just to our south and west.  We may very well go under one of those watches later this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Stick with us over the next 12 hours as everything should come together and we will be able to formulate a pretty good forecast.  Snow is tough to deal with on the forecasting side and is even harder to deal with in a coastal region.

Charleston City Councilman William Gregorie wants to broadcast the council meetings on a public access channel so people who can’t make the meetings (or those who just don’t consider going) can watch what’s going on. It would costs about $150,000 in equipment costs to do so and that’s the problem opponents have with the idea.

What do you think?

We always aired our city council meetings back home in Virginia and a lot of people watched. In the wake of the economy, I don’t know that it’s a priority right now, but think it’s a good idea for the future.

First things first, yes, there is a chance of snow Friday-Saturday.  However, is it going to mean much?  Probably not. 

There is a storm system that will make its way across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours and then emerge somewhere off of the southeastern US coast between Cape Canaveral, FL and Savannah, GA Saturday.  Depending on the exact track of the storm, we could see just some clouds or measurable snowfall or a cold rain.  We could even see a mix of rain and snow or nothing at all.  I really don’t like being in the spot I’m in right now, and most other forecasters I know don’t either.  There is nothing worse than seeing a storm on the map with guidance all over the place, especially when that storm could have major impacts on the sensible weather.  In this case, we are talking about snow, and we know how rare of an event that is.  This is really frustrating when we are so close to the event.

Let me lay out the scenario that seems most likely based off of what I see so far. 

First, the US models (the GFS and the NAM/WRF) are showing the storm going across central FL then off the FL coastline and heading out to see by Saturday morning.  If this track were to verify, we would see clouds and just a few rain drops or a flurry if anything.  My verdict on this track is pretty simple.  I don’t buy it.  Here’s why.  The US models so far this year, in many cases, have been tracking storms a little too far south and east.  Also, we can see errors in the position of the storm right now because the initialization of the model is showing the energy farther south than it actually is.  So I think the US models are out to lunch.

The other half of the guidance, namely the ECMWF (the European supermodel, this one usually does really well) and the Canadian, are showing one heck of a storm across much of the Deep South from I-20 to I-10.  Now, I am leaning toward this solution, but leaning with caution.  I’m just not sold on the idea that enough cold air will be able to make it this far south and east in time for a heavy accumulating snow.  Now back over AL/MS/GA I can see it, but I am hesitant to go with that idea right now.

My thinking is the storm will likely track just along the Gulf coast and then east-northeast off of the Georgia coast on Saturday.  The moisture will likely be there, but the cold air is going to have a tough time coming in. 

So the bottom line is this—keep an eye on the forecast over the next 2 days.  A lot can, and will, change between now and Friday.  There are a lot of variables that come into play when dealing with scenarios like this.  Don’t rush out expecting a big snow because chances are we won’t get much, but there is a chance we might.  My thinking is we will see some rain Friday afternoon mixing with and possibly changing to snow during the evening hours from west to east.  Snow accumulations look to be pretty light, if any at all, and will likely be confined to grassy surfaces.  It is going to be really tough to get surface temps down to and below freezing as the storm moves in, but it is possible.  Just keep an eye on everything but chances are you won’t have anything to worry about.

Can this pattern get anymore annoying?  At least it is somewhat exciting, but come on, enough with the rain already.  We are in store for another round of rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night, but at least this time the storm will be a quick mover and won’t be as strong as the past couple of storms.  I think rainfall totals will be at or below 1/2 inch AT THE MOST with this system.  Now to our north we are looking at another major snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic and northeastern US.  Snow will likely be measured in feet again in some areas with the bulls eye on this storm falling somewhere between Philadelphia and New York City.

Colder temperatures will arrive behind the storm for Wednesday and Thursday with most areas holding in the 40s for daytime highs on Wednesday with lower 50s on Thursday. 

On Friday, another storm will affect the southeastern US.  The guidance is all over the place with this one and I’m too unsure to make a call on this one right now.  Stick with me over the next couple of days for updates.

As we look at the next 15 days, I would say prepare for another extended cold period with temperatures running at least 10 degrees below the seasonal averages for a majority of the time.  By now, our average highs are in the lower 60s, so look for highs in the 40s to lower 50s to be popping up pretty frequently over the next couple of weeks if trends continue.  BRRRRRRRR!

I went to see “Dear John” opening night last Friday. Overall, I was pleased. It was so awesome to see Folly Beach, Bowen’s Island, the CofC campus and the alleyway of Coast Restaurant all in the film. Everybody in the audience let out a soft cheer when Channing Tatum’s character writes to his love that he “misses Charleston.“

As if the world doesn’t already know how awesome Charleston is, even more will be flocking here!

As for my review, I thought the movie was well-done, well-shot and well-told. I did expect a little more, but after “The Notebook”...it’s hard to live up to that kind of romance in a film. At first, I was disappointed about the ending, but really…there’s no other way to end it. The emotional ups and downs weren’t quite as extreme as “The Notebook,“ but I’d give it 3.5-4 out of five stars. Great location and duh…Channing Tatum!

Let me start by saying that I love Carolina. When I die…I will either have a headstone that reads “here lies a Tar Heel” or I will be cremated with my ashes spread among the old oaks of Polk Place.  Yes, I LOVE Carolina. 

But….What in TARnation is going on?

After countless losses, the Heels are about to get another beating. From me.  This is unbelievable…unbearable…and most of all unacceptable.  Sure…the national champs lost their starting five players, but good gracious what the “heel” is going on!  One of the worst losing streaks in six years!  It’s not like we don’t have plenty of talent.  And it’s not like the boys are all brand new and didn’t play last year.  Bottom line…we should be better than this!

I’m no “wine and cheese” fan, but I will not stand to watch one of the top teams in the country fall off a cliff with no desire to pull itself back up.  Being a Tar Heel…not to mention a Tar Heel basketball player…comes with great pride and responsibility.  My 7pm bedtime has severely limited me from watching any games (why watch a game on tivo when you know the outcome??) so I don’t know if these youngins just don’t want it enough or what, but we ain’t winnin’.  I’ve had my fair share of heart attacks from teams in years past. The 2005 Champs sent me to the floor banging on my tv screen when we nearly lost to Vilanova in one of the final rounds.  But this year is like being in a coma.  Watching our football games this past fall were more exciting…and that’s not saying much.

I could sit here and try to make sense of this…try to analyze our weaknesses and offer my own opinions, but I didn’t give too hoots about basketball until I came to Carolina so I know nothing about coaching.  So as our t-shirts say “In Roy we trust,“ and I’ll say “boys, STEP IT UP!“

So even though I’m at a loss this season, I still proudly wave my stuffed Rames high in the air when Rob Fowlers points to me in the newsroom to visitors and says, “That’s Tara. She’s a Tar Heel.“  And I will tap somebody on the shoulder in a second if they are sporting UNC gear and hold my hand high for a proud high-five.  I love Carolina, win or lose…always.

Believe it or not, there is a holiday for us weather gurus.

Friday, February 5 is National Weatherman’s Day.  The significance of February 5 comes from the birthday of John Jeffries, one of America’s first weather observers, in 1744. Jeffries began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and took the first balloon observation in 1784. The day recognizes meteorologists who collectively provide weather forecasts and hazardous weather alerts on a daily basis.

I have learned a lot from many great forecasters, so this is not just me saying “hey, it’s my holiday!“  I am saluting those who came before me and taught me everything I know.  You know who you are and you are appreciated.  I owe my career to a couple of you.

Think about this too.  There is a wealth of weather knowledge at your fingertips, whether online, in print, or over the air waves.  This is a convenience we all have become accustomed to and sometimes take for granted.  We don’t always get it right, and I’ll be the first to admit that I miss the boat sometimes.  However, I can guarantee you one thing.  Everyday I’m on the job, you are going to get my best shot at what I think is going to happen. 

See you on the news!

Many praised her gracefulness as she dealt with her husband’s affair, but some are not so impressed with her recent media tour promoting her book about the ordeal.

One comment on our website criticized her for not shielding her children enough and said she shouldn’t use the book to bad-mouth the other parent. Another accuses her of lying when she said she didn’t know where her husband was during his infamous trip to Argentina last June.

The latest excerpt from the book says that Mark Sanford asked her to strike being faithful from their marriage vows. She says marrying him was a “leap of faith.“ Probably should have walked away then….

Just wondering if anybody else’s opinion had also changed.  Do you plan on reading the book?

As I was placing my forecast on my Facebook Page, the mention of more rain in the forecast brought some interesting comments….David says we need to fix this…his yard is waving the white flag, calling for mercy.  Holly says the last time she saw this much rain, she was in England.  Peggy misses our “snow…aka rain”....because shoveling is not required. Cheryl simply says….argggggggh! My sentiments exactly! The purpose of this blog is to answer, though, Narendra’s question about just how much rain we have seen lately. Ask, and ye shall receive.  Unfortunately, the numbers aren’t pretty.  It doesn’t seem that long ago that the word “drought” was mentioned.  December, January, and now February have taken that word right out of our weather vocabulary.  So far, in those three months, we have recorded 17.14” of rain.  Normal rainfall during that period would be 7.67.“  That means we are a WHOPPING 9.47” above normal since the first of December.  I wish I had better news, but the weather pattern continues to indicate more rain Check out the 90 day precipitation outlook through April…..
I am not suggesting we head to Lowe’s or Home Depot for any lumber yet, nor should we start looking for animals times two, but we can make sure our umbrellas, raincoats, and boots are in a very handy place!!!!

A major storm will impact the eastern United States beginning Thursday through the weekend.  The storm will impact our weather Thursday night through Friday night with widespread rain, some quite heavy, and a gusty breeze.  No significant wind problems are expected, but rain could become a problem for some folks if enough rain falls in a short amount of time.  Right now, I’m thinking 1-3”, perhaps a bit more, of rain is a good estimate.  Storms like this one can sometimes allow for convective bands of rain which could enhance totals in certain areas.  We will have to monitor the flooding potential since we have had some pretty heavy rain as of late.  At this point, we are not anticipating significant flooding problems.

Alright folks!  It’s the first week of February, that means it is time to throw down the numbers for January and see how they stack up against the forecast for the month.

Here is my blog entry from December 28, 2009 which included the forecast for January.
—————-BEGIN———————-
January forecast ideas
Posted on 12/28 at 08:51 PM.
The chatter in the weather community over the past two weeks has been the swing to a much colder weather pattern for most of the northern hemisphere beginning the last couple of days of December into at least the first couple of weeks of January.  In fact, some indications are we could be looking at the coldest open to the new year in 20-30 years.

It also looks like the active storm track will continue through this period which could increase snow potential across the southern US since there will be so much cold air around.  Precipitation is expected to be above average, but not as wet as December.

Hopefully we will moderate some by the end of the month, but even that looks like a bit of a stretch at this point.  Most indications are for an extended period of colder than normal weather to continue through the month.

JANUARY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE:  COLDER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIP: WETTER THAN AVERAGE

—————-END—————

Both the temperature and precipitation forecasts verified.  We did well on the first two weeks of January.  It was indeed the coldest stretch of days in 20-30 years, with records being broken both Downtown and at the airport.  We set a new record for the longest stretch of 30 degrees or lower for overnight lows at CHS.  This January had an average temperature of 44.5 degrees.  This is approximately 4 degrees below average.  That makes January 2010 the coldest January since 1988 at the Charleston International Airport and the coldest since 1985 in Downtown.  As far as precip is concerned, we ended the month with 6.46” in the rain gauge which is 2.38” above the monthly average.  There were 4 days when rain totals exceeded 1”.

Moving on to February, it looks like the general idea of colder than average temperatures with above average precipitation is a pretty safe bet once again.  Guidance suggests we will likely stay in the pattern we’ve been in over the past week through next week.  After that there are indications that another extreme outbreak of cold could impact the United States.  It is too early to tell if this outbreak will be as cold relative to average or as long in duration as the one experienced the first two weeks of January.  The active storm track is expected to continue through the rest of the winter which will likely maintain above average precipitation values.

FEBRUARY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE: COLDER THAN AVERAGE (-2.0 to -4.0 F)
PRECIPITATION: ABOVE AVERAGE (+1.5” to +2.5”)

  ..HOW COLD WAS THIS JANUARY? 

WHILE JANUARY 2010 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDER JANUARY/S ON RECORD…WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH PREVENTED IT FROM BEING EVEN COLDER. 
EVERY DAY FROM JANUARY 2 THROUGH 14…TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NORMAL.
HOWEVER…ALMOST THE EXACT OPPOSITE OCCURRED THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH…AS MOST DAYS FROM JANUARY 15 THROUGH 31 WERE ABOVE NORMAL. 
FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT…JANUARY 2010 SAW AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE   OF 44.5 DEGREES.
THIS IS THE COLDEST JANUARY SINCE 1988…WHEN THE   AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 43.2 DEGREES.
THIS IS THE 13TH COLDEST   JANUARY ON RECORD…WHICH DATES BACK TO 1938.
THE COLDEST JANUARY ON   RECORD OCCURRED IN 1940…WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 37.7   DEGREES. 
FOR DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON…JANUARY 2010 SAW AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF   46.1 DEGREES.
THIS IS THE COLDEST JANUARY SINCE 1985…WHEN THE   AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 44.1 DEGREES.
THIS IS THE 14TH COLDEST   JANUARY ON RECORD…WHICH DATES BACK TO 1893.
THE COLDEST JANUARY ON   RECORD OCCURRED IN 1940…WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 40.0   DEGREES. 
ON JANUARY 4. 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST FOR FEBRUARY AND ALSO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER…CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

Is there something that your husband, wife or significant other does that just burns you up? Why don’t men ever plan ahead? Why are women so sensitive?

The week of Valentine’s I’m inviting back to My News 2 the author of the book “Little White Whys: The lies men tell and why.“ I want your input on the segment. I thought it would be fun for us to go back and forth with some of the things that annoy us most about the opposite sex. Why do women take so long to get ready in the mornings? If a guy says ____, what does he really mean?

So let me know some of the questions about the opposite sex you want answered or even something that gets under your skin that men/women do and we’ll take a stab at explaining the reason behind them!

What is right and wrong with red, blue, white, black, and gray?

Click here for some come great advice on making the right impression.

Just finished up a conference call with the National Weather Service…..
Here is the information they wanted us to get out to get to you….
...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BLACK ICE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS
TONIGHT…
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE…WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL USHER IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING JUST AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING…THEN REACH A LOW TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHICH MAY BEGIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT ONCE TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES
SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WHICH SHOULD
NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBILITY…WATER FROM RECENT
RAINS MAY FREEZE TO FORM DANGEROUS ICY PATCHES ON SOME ROAD SURFACES.
SINCE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER WARM…ICY PATCHES ON SURFACE
STREETS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE
ON BRIDGES…OVERPASSES…AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS. ROAD ICE IS
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE AT NIGHT…ENHANCING THE DANGER TO
UNSUSPECTING MOTORISTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY MORNING ONCE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS OVERNIGHT.
BE ALERT FOR BLACK ICE THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE AT NIGHT.
REDUCE YOUR SPEED AND BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the region through Sunday morning. 

Areas of drizzle will become freezing drizzle as temperatures fall into the 20s across most of the region.  Subfreezing temperatures will also allow for the development of ice from leftover moisture from Saturday’s rainfall.  Soil temperatures are in the 40s which will allow for most road surfaces to stay wet instead of icy for much of the night.  However, since many roadways across the Lowcountry are comprised of many bridges and overpasses, which lose heat very quickly, travel could become hazardous in some areas.

Freezing drizzle and freezing rain can be quite deceptive as liquid is falling from the sky.  However, as the rain drops strike objects exposed to subfreezing temperatures, ice forms immediately. 

Please be careful driving or walking and be alert for the possibility of patchy ice.

TIMELINE:  6 PM -  Freezing drizzle possible north of a line from Orangeburg to Moncks Corner to Georgetown.  Temps will range from near or just below freezing north of this line to the middle 30s across the south coast.

8 PM - Freezing drizzle possible across much of the area along and west of 17 A.  Temps will be near or below freezing across most of the region except along the coast.

10 PM - Freezing drizzle possible across much of the region except along the immediate coastline.  Temps will fall into the 20s across most interior sections of the Lowcountry west of 17 A.

Midnight - Freezing drizzle possible.  Temps will remain near or below freezing through the remainder of the overnight hours.  Any leftover moisture on surfaces will likely freeze and travel could become difficult in some areas, especially on bridges and overpasses.  Coastal communities may stay just above freezing.

SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME—HOWEVER—STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST INFORMATION BY VISITING OUR MAIN SITE AT COUNTON2.COM OR FROM THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the region through Sunday morning. 

Areas of drizzle will become freezing drizzle as temperatures fall into the 20s across most of the region.  Subfreezing temperatures will also allow for the development of ice from leftover moisture from Saturday’s rainfall.  Soil temperatures are in the 40s which will allow for most road surfaces to stay wet instead of icy for much of the night.  However, since many roadways across the Lowcountry are comprised of many bridges and overpasses, which lose heat very quickly, travel could become hazardous in some areas.

Freezing drizzle and freezing rain can be quite deceptive as liquid is falling from the sky.  However, as the rain drops strike objects exposed to subfreezing temperatures, ice forms immediately. 

Please be careful driving or walking and be alert for the possibility of patchy ice.

TIMELINE:  6 PM -  Freezing drizzle possible north of a line from Orangeburg to Moncks Corner to Georgetown.  Temps will range from near or just below freezing north of this line to the middle 30s across the south coast.

8 PM - Freezing drizzle possible across much of the area along and west of 17 A.  Temps will be near or below freezing across most of the region except along the coast.

10 PM - Freezing drizzle possible across much of the region except along the immediate coastline.  Temps will fall into the 20s across most interior sections of the Lowcountry west of 17 A.

Midnight - Freezing drizzle possible.  Temps will remain near or below freezing through the remainder of the overnight hours.  Any leftover moisture on surfaces will likely freeze and travel could become difficult in some areas, especially on bridges and overpasses.  Coastal communities may stay just above freezing.

SIGNIFICANT ICING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME—HOWEVER—STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST INFORMATION BY VISITING OUR MAIN SITE AT COUNTON2.COM OR FROM THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

Here it comes! The storm we’ve been talking about all week will spread a cold, heavy rain across the Lowcountry beginning late tonight through much of the day on Saturday.  I still think most of us will see 1-3” of rain by the time everything is said and done.  The interesting part of this storm could occur tomorrow night as the cold air continue to invade the region.  By Saturday afternoon, temperatures will be tumbling through the 30s away from the coast.  The latest guidance suggests widespread drizzle could develop tomorrow evening and last through the night.  If temperatures fall to or below freezing, we could have some issues with icing tomorrow night.  Freezing rain/drizzle is deceiving because you see liquid falling from the sky, but as it strikes a surface below freezing it turns to ice.  At this point, I’m not terribly concerned, but with the strength of this storm and the coming cold air mass, we will have to monitor the trends very carefully.

To our north and west, a MAJOR WINTER STORM will occur across the upstate of SC and much of NC/VA.  Snow totals between the NC/SC border and I-40 could reach 5-10” with 10-15” possible from I-40 north into VA.  Across the I-85 corridor, a significant amount of snow is expected, around 2-5”, with damaging accumulations of ice.  If you have weekend plans to travel north, you may want to reconsider.  This is the type of storm that can paralyze the region if everything comes together just right.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of the region which means there is a serious risk to life and property if exposed to the elements.

After the storm passes, expect a cold and windy day on Sunday with most of us only reaching the middle 40s for afternoon highs.  Lows will be in the 20s Sunday night with a widespread hard freeze all the way to the coastal communities.  High temperatures will only rebound to the middle and upper 50s by the middle of next week, which is at or below the seasonal averages.  A weaker storm will arrive on Tuesday, followed by the potential of another significant storm Thursday-Friday.

Old Man Winter may have a lot up his sleeve over the next few weeks as there are several indicators in the atmosphere right now signaling a very active storm track with a lot of cold air on the table for February, especially the middle and end of the month.

A strong storm system will move across the southeastern US Friday and Saturday with a cold rain developing across the Lowcountry.  To our northwest, mainly near and north of I-85, a major winter storm, with significant ice and snow accumulations, is possible. 

We may see a couple of inches of rain out of this system if everything comes together just right.  Saturday will be a cold, breezy, and rainy day with most areas only seeing the thermometer climb into the middle 40s at best with falling temperatures possible by late afternoon. After the storm departs, you can expect a cold and sunny day on Sunday with highs likely holding in the 40s.

One side note:  Some guidance is trying to develop some precip across the region Saturday night.  If this occurs, we will have to monitor trends carefully for potential winter precip .  For now the chance of that occurring is very low, as guidance sometimes over plays wrap around moisture.  The forecast will continue to indicate a decreasing chance of rain Saturday afternoon and dry conditions overnight Saturday as much colder air filters into the region.  However, we will continue to monitor trends.

Cooler temps are expected on Wednesday with highs in the lower to middle 50s.  Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to middle 60s.  Not too bad, huh?  Don’t get used to it, big changes are coming Friday night into Saturday.

The very active El Nino pattern continues across the United States and it looks like our good buddy will crank out a whopper of a storm over the next few days.  Rain and wind with mountain snow across the west coast now will head into the Southern Plains by Thursday.  As the system begins to pull moisture into its core from the Gulf of Mexico, widespread rain and thunderstorms will develop to the south of the storm track with significant ice and snow to the north.  It looks like the I-40 corridor from the Plains through Tennessee and into North Carolina could take a lashing from this system with the possibility of major snow and ice accumulations.

Based off of the latest guidance, the storm looks to move right on top of the Lowcountry or just to our south which will likely keep us in the colder air.  I know we are going to see rain, and we could see quite a bit (perhaps 1-3”), but I am a little more uncertain about the temperature forecast.  My gut feeling on this one has me leaning toward a cold, heavy rain developing Friday into Saturday, but any slight deviation in the track of the storm could dictate whether we see 40s Friday night and Saturday or 60s.  Either way, it will get colder Saturday night into Sunday as an Arctic air mass moves into the region.

If anyone has travel plans to the upstate or western NC this weekend, stay up to date on the latest information.  Current trends suggest a major winter storm could occur across portions of northwest SC and western NC.

It happens everyday. You have a small crack in your windshield and procrastinate until it’s so large, rain water starts leaking in your car…then you’ll get it fixed. We all procrastinate, but it annoys me to no end that it takes something drastic or a tragedy for us to make a change.

It shouldn’t take a teen dying in a car accident at a dangerous intersection without a stop sign or traffic light to have one installed there after years of requests from the people who live in that area…yet sadly enough that’s often the case.

Yes, we absolutely need to help Haiti in their time of need, but is it not as tragic that we have millions of people in this country who can’t read or fill out a job application? Is it not as tragic that we have children who are failing in school or going hungry?

There are everyday tragedies and crises in this country…will you respond?

After above average temperatures today, the thermostat will reset Tuesday through Thursday with highs generally 1-3 degrees either side of average under abundant sunshine.  Overnight lows will flirt with or go below freezing Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  Not too bad, but definitely a touch colder.

Another storm will approach the region Friday and produce a pretty decent shot at rain Friday night into Saturday.  Just like the past two storms, this will likely produce heavy rain and a gusty breeze.  It is possible that this storm could go right over us or just to our south which would keep us on the cooler side of the system.  A more southern track would also create an ideal setup for a major winter storm from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states.  We will continue to monitor the situation as many of you might have weekend plans to head north. 

Much colder temperatures will arrive over the weekend and into early next week as well.  It is conceivable that many of us may stay in the 40s for daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday.

After above average temperatures today, the thermostat will reset Tuesday through Thursday with highs generally 1-3 degrees either side of average under abundant sunshine.  Overnight lows will flirt with or go below freezing Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  Not too bad, but definitely a touch colder.

Another storm will approach the region Friday and produce a pretty decent shot at rain Friday night into Saturday.  Just like the past two storms, this will likely produce heavy rain and a gusty breeze.  It is possible that this storm could go right over us or just to our south which would keep us on the cooler side of the system.  A more southern track would also create an ideal setup for a major winter storm from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states.  We will continue to monitor the situation as many of you might have weekend plans to head north. 

Much colder temperatures will arrive over the weekend and into early next week as well.  It is conceivable that many of us may stay in the 40s for daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday.

Ha! Would you hire somebody to sleep in your hotel bed to warm it up? That’s what one Holiday Inn is offering in London!  They have a poll on the site and more than 85 percent of the people who voted said it’s creepy.  I agree.

Check out the article: http://bit.ly/6ybY0e

  You likely remember the story of a Haitian-born Jean Rebecca from his visits to News 2 in the days following the earthquake in Haiti.  Jean went 6 days without knowing if his family survived.  On Tuesday momentarily he spoke with his mother for 5 minutes. 
  What he knows right now is that she, his sisters and 2 brothers are alive, and like millions of others they are living on the streets of Port-au-Prince without food or water.
  So here is what happenes next, Jean and a team of missionaries will drive to Orlando.  They will then fly to the Domimnican Repubilcan with supplies.  Finally, they will travel to Haiti from the Dominican Republican.
  It is a journey of a lifetime.  A young man who only wants to ensure the safety of his family in a place that he still calls home.

Lawmakers are trying to figure out how to deal with cutting hundreds of thousands of dollars from the budget and schools are taking a hard hit (and already have).

Here are a few suggestions from members of a House Ways and Means subcommittee:

1) eliminating the last five days of school which would save $21 million a day in salaries and transportation
2)  Reducing the number of courses required for students to graduate.  At first I was livid about this idea, but apparently South Carolina currently requires more credits than any other state (24).  While it still doesn’t sound like a great idea, at least it shouldn’t put us further behind other states.

Then again, when our state continuously ranks at the bottom of education quality lists…we need all we have and can get to improve our education system.

My mom has been a teacher for fourteen years so I know how hard teachers work and how much they are already asked to do.  I applaud you.  Don’t think I have the patience for a classroom full of 25-30 kids!

Lawmakers have to cut something…what do you think of their suggestions and what ideas do you have?

It is hard to imagine the anguish of speaking to your mother minutes after the foundation of her life cracks and crumbles to the ground, and then not hearing from her for 6 days.  It happened to my friend Jean Rebecca.  Haiti suffered a vicious blow…but people far beyond the island nation are hurting too.  Jean’s family lives about 7 miles from the capital city of Port-au-Prince.  He spoke with her for the first time Monday night.  He is relieved that she is alive and determined to keep her, his 2 sisters and 2 brothers that way…

These are the times and locations of the Travel Shows for the Canadian Rockies trip this July with News2 Viewers.

Canadian Rockies Travel Shows

Tuesday, February 16th

10am and 1pm Comfort Suites

                1025 Jockey Court

                Summerville

7pm Comfort Suites

      2500 Broad Street

      Sumter, SC

Wednesday, February 17th

10am and 1pm Hampton Inn and Suites

                678 Citadel Haven Drive

                Charleston

7pm Courtyard by Marriott

      1251 Woodland Avenue

      Mt. Pleasant

I’m not endorsing Turbo Tax, but these are some good things to remember if you’re going to file your own taxes.

Don’t overpay taxes by overlooking tax deductions. See the most common errors taxpayers make on their tax returns, so you don’t make the same mistakes.

The story on Jim Leavitt, USF’s fired coach continues to get more interested and as it turns out, there’s a Citadel connection.

If you recall, Leavitt was canned after allegedly striking Joel Miller during a game against Louisville.

Apparently a secret meeting was arranged in a nearbye Church parking lot to ensure a cover up.

From the fanhouse:

“He said, ‘Before you speak your next words, choose your next words carefully because I’m the reason you’re here. You should be coming in here and thanking me [for letting him transfer from The Citadel]. How many walk-ons would have this chance? Zero. You should be thanking me for grabbing you, you were out of it,‘“ Miller said Leavitt told him.“

Yes you read it right. Miller went to the Citadel. Here’s his bio

Highs today were in the middle 50s and by tomorrow we will be exceeding 65 away from the beach in many areas. 

Now, mild/warm temps are all relative.  I know for many, it isn’t mild or warm until the afternoon high is above 65.  In this case though, anything near the seasonal average is mild due to the extremely cold weather over the past two weeks.  The seasonal averages are in the upper 50s, and that will be a pretty good ballpark over the next week.  Some days warmer, some days possibly a touch cooler.  Highs will be in the 60s over the weekend as it stands right now with lows near 50 by Sunday morning.  We will likely see a little bit of a cool down Monday and Tuesday with highs a degree or two either side of 55.  There are some indications that a cold air damming event could develop briefly Monday and Tuesday, but for now, we will just watch the trends and leave the forecast alone.  I think 60s are a pretty good bet by the middle of next week if current trends verify.  Now I know middle 50s to lower 60s aren’t incredibly warm, but I’ll take it after what we just came out of.

We also appear to be headed to a more active pattern for a week or two.  The trends kind of remind me of December as we head through the next couple of weeks.  I think our rainfall will be at or above seasonal averages.  The storm headed our way over the weekend could be a doozy.  I think a couple of inches of rain are easily attainable Saturday afternoon through Sunday.  The wind could become quite gusty as well, especially at the coast.  We should be dry Monday through Wednesday with another storm approaching by the end of next week.
 

I found this video on one of my favorite sites…The Palmetto Scoop.

The article says, this Jim Stachowiak guy was tossed from Senator Lindsey Graham’s town hall meeting at Clemson University Tuesday.  He responded with a video that looks like it is straight out of an al-Qaeda cave.

Finally, after Thursday morning, the cold period will be over!  I think we are all happy about that, especially when you think about what the cold has done to your electric bill.  In fact, I’m a little nauseous about getting mine in a few weeks.  Highs Thursday will be in the upper 50s to near 60 with mid 60s possible by Friday.  With the milder air comes the chance of rain, which we haven’t had in a while.  I think a good soaking is on the way this weekend with many of us seeing an inch or more of rain.  Since we haven’t seen any rain in a couple of weeks and with all of the dry air around, our ground should be able to hold this without any major problems.  We will continue to monitor the trends but at this time I don’t expect any flooding problems.

I’m sure you have been astonished by the footage coming out of Haiti after the massive magnitude 7.0 earthquake Wednesday afternoon.  This appears to be the strongest earthquake to ever hit that area and has caused extensive damage.  Some reports show the possibility of more than 100,000 fatalities.  There are some theories about strong seismic activity and low total solar irradiance.  Over the past couple of years, sunspots have almost disappeared and our sun has pretty much fallen asleep.  In the past, some scientists say you can correlate increased seismic activity with low total solar irradiance.  I’m no expert on this, so I can’t really form an opinion, but it is something I’ve heard of and was discussed in geology while I was in college. 

Here’s another reason to drink green tea.

It may cut your chances of developing lunch cancer, even in smokers.

NBC reports that researchers compared green tea drinking habits of people with lung cancer to those without lung cancer.

Smokers and non-smokers who didn’t drink green tea were five times more likely to get lung cancer than those who regularly drank it. 

They say genes though may also affect play a role in green tea’s impact on lung cancer chances.

We started talking about this coming cold around Christmas-time saying that it could be the coldest open to a new year across the US in many years, even decades.  Well, I would say that idea verified. 

As of today, we have achieved the second longest duration of low temperatures below 34 degrees in Downtown Charleston at 11 days.  I think we will make it 12 tonight, and probably 13 on Thursday morning, which will break the record.  That record has stood since 1940.

I’ve been trolling around today looking for some interesting points from around the region and found a goldmine on Jesse Ferrell’s blog at accuweather.com

- Over 1900 record lows have been broken or tied since Jan. 1 according to the National Climatic Data Center

- Key West, Florida dips to 42 degrees 1/11/10—the second coldest temp ever observed there in 50,000 days.  Shelters had to be opened because most buildings there don’t have heat.  Keep in mind the average low temperature this time of year down there is 65.

- Freeport, Bahamas fell to 41 degrees 1/11/10—tied the coldest temp ever observed (unofficial results)  (UPDATE:  David Bernard with CBS 4 in Miami e-mailed Accuweather to tell them he was able to get in touch with the Bahamian weather service.  The record was NOT broken.  The actual record is 35, not 41.)

- Havana, Cuba fell to 39 degrees 1/11/10—coldest ever observed in Havana

-In Guatemala, Tajumulco, the tallest volcano in Central America is now capped with snow.  The first time snow has ever been observed on the peak.

Brrrrr….  that’s really all you can say.

We will now go into a January thaw for the next couple of weeks with high temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages beginning Thursday through the first part of next week.  There are signs that the pattern will flip back to a colder look by the first of February.  It is quite possible we could see the same type of extended cold period again this winter.  We will watch it for you, but for now, enjoy the thaw!

Congratulations, you’ve earned it!

I was going to blog about Mark McGwire, but it’s not worth the time.  Did you hear about Delta?

Geez!  They are raising the baggage fee again!  To check a first bag for it will cost $23 now, up from $15, and a second bag will costs $32, up from $25.

One more reason for me not to fly unless the trip takes longer than 10 hours.  I think we should take predictions on what’s coming next.

I think they’ll start charging more for seats closer to the front of the plane and more for aisle and window seats.

Wow.  That’s about the only word I can come up with to describe the past 10 days.  What a way to start the new year huh?

By the way, a few verification issues to point out from this last surge of Arctic air Friday through Sunday.  Friday’s high was 49 at CHS, which occurred before daybreak.  We fell into the upper 30s by mid-morning and my forecast was for us to hold steady through the day.  Well that didn’t happen, I was wrong.  We actually rose back into the middle 40s due to the Arctic air mass moving slower than anticipated and abundant sunshine.  The air mass quickly moved in Friday night with low temperatures in the 20s on Saturday morning.  The high at CHS on Saturday was 37.  The forecast: upper 30s… from 7 days out…  So check…  Sunday morning’s low was 18, the forecast called for upper teens 7 days out… check.  Sunday’s high was 42.  The forecast called for upper 30s to near 40 7 days out, so check minus.  Overall I will give my forecast a B+ because of the big flub on Friday and the slight deviation on Sunday.  I do want to point something out again though.  The forecasts on the point and click sites from a certain weather entity and from the weather supersites were way off on even a 12-24 hour forecast.  On Saturday morning, some forecasts were still advertising lower to middle 40s for daytime highs on Saturday.  It goes back to what I was discussing last week about pattern recognition, model bias recognition, and understanding the physical processes that occur when you introduce Arctic air into the system. Although I did blow Friday’s forecast, but I’m not sure anyone noticed because it was still cold, but I think it is important to point out those errors.

As of this morning, we are running 12.8 degrees below average for the month so far at CHS with below average temps expected to continue through Wednesday.  By Thursday, we should see highs around the seasonal average, which is 59, and go beyond that on Friday into the lower 60s.  Can you believe we are getting excited about 50s?  In Charleston?  Well, I am and I think many of you are too.

So the next question presented…  Is this the last of winter?  I think the answer is a resounding NO!  The pattern is such that we will likely experience cold periods just like the one we are coming out of again this winter.  So don’t let your guard down.  My guess is we will have another round of cold temperatures by the first of February.  It is a long way out, we will keep an eye on it and give you as much of a heads up as possible.

Remember the days when a high school athlete looked like a 5 year old on Christmas the day he announced his school of choice.

I can remember Magic Johnson’s wide smile in old highlight films when he announced his decision to go to Michigan State.

Now as high school sports become more bling-bling, and less about fundamental thing-things, we got Victor Hampton of Darlington.

Victor is probably a great kid. I’ve never met him, never seen him play. But as I watched him pick up a Tennessee hat Saturday during the US Army All American Bowl, only to throw it down and say, “Nah, I’m going to South Carolina,“ I couldn’t help but shake my head and think, he just doesn’t get it.

Whether you like Lane Kiffin or not, here’s the facts: The school had to spent a pretty penny trying to recruit the defensive back. Not only that but I’m sure they spent a significant amount of time as well.

For him to throw that hat down and say “Nah,“ well I think that was pretty disrespectful.

I’m sure they’ll be a lot of incoming freshman on that Tennessee team that have his name circled. It should be interesting to see what happends the first time they play each other.

I was supposed to be off until Thursday. Then I remembered UNC was scheduled to come to Charleston on January 4th.

End of vacation. Sorry Florida, I’m coming back early.

The night was amazing. It’s still a rush just thinking about it.

Yes, the College beat a short handed Tar Heel team. But years from now, fans in attendance won’t be thinking about the fact two of the best three players were out of the lineup for North Carolina.

Instead, they’ll be thinking about hugging Jeremey Simmons, posing for pictures with Tony White Jr, and rushing the court in the final moments.

Bobby Cremins said afterwards the victory didn’t make or break the season. But save winning the national title or even making it to the big dance, this is the biggest thing COFC can do from a historical perspective. Years from now it won’t be “Remember that 2010 club that won 28 games?“ It will always be, “We got one on UNC.“

January 4th was the night the country saw the College on the grand stage once again.

In reality this was the third time in the recent years, the Cougars beat the Tar Heels but this one was extra special. It wasn’t on a neutral cite. It wasn’t in Chapel Hill. This one was here. There for the fans to enjoy.

One thing’s for sure, big teams aren’t going to be so keen on going to the College from now on.

So we have an ice-cream truck to keep us cool in the summer.  So why don’t we have a hot chocolate truck in the winter. Think about all the kids and parents standing out at the bus stop when it’s 40 degrees outside.  And if the truck had coffee…Shabam! Money maker!

If you want to go into business let me know!

Sometimes we can sabotage the most important meal of the day by waking up to an overload of sugar, like with Pop-Tarts or muffins. You want to make sure that your breakfast is low in sugar and high in protein and fiber. This will keep you full for longer so that making it to lunchtime is no problem. Products like granola bars, juice and cereal can be very high in sugar. Healthier options are eggs or oatmeal. So next time you’re at the grocery store, make sure you check the back of the box for the sugar levels in your breakfast foods.

It looks like the forecast over the past couple of days on how all of this would play out is right on track.  A moisture starved Arctic front will cross the region overnight into the first part of the day on Friday bringing scattered rain showers mixing with and possibly changing to snow/sleet tonight and then ending as snow showers on Friday. No significant impacts are expected at this time. A cold and blustery day is in store on Friday with a partly sunny sky by afternoon.  High temperatures will go no warmer than the upper 30s to near 40 with temperatures plummeting into the 20s shortly after sunset.  A widespread hard freeze will occur again Friday night.

The core of the Arctic air mass arrives on Saturday.  Under full sunshine, highs will only reach the 35-40 degree range in most locations with widespread teens expected overnight away from the beach.  Wind chills could fall into the single digits making a very cold night and morning into a brutally cold night and morning.  Highs on Sunday will likely stay below 40 again.

Now, I know the forecast above doesn’t agree with the weather supersite forecasts or the “point and click” forecast from a certain weather entity.  My numbers are adjusted to take into account the strength of this air mass as compared to the previous cold over the past several days (which by the way observed temps on those days were colder than the supersites and the point and click forecasts) and the warm bias of model output statistics in Arctic air outbreaks.  I want to assure you I’m not knocking or discounting other forecasts/forecasters.  I am offering my knowledge of weather patterns and operational forecasting to create an opinion on what may happen.  When it’s all said and done early next week, we will compare the numbers and learn from them.  A good forecaster will go back, look at both the strengths and weaknesses of the forecast, then build their knowledge base to prepare a better forecast next time.

So there you have it.  My numbers are out, and they are pretty much the ideas advertised here and on the 7 day all week.

Past this cold wave over the weekend we will finally warm up!  Yes!  50s are on the way for the middle of next week!  Don’t get too excited though.  It looks like this will be a brief reprieve of near normal temps over the next two weeks before another round of below average temps arrives.  In this type of pattern, it is just a question of when that happens.  Cold weather will return, it’s just a matter of time.

The Consumer Electronics Show is uncder way in Las Vegas and automakers are unveiling a new “infotainment” system in cars.  You can watch movies, have GPS and look up restaurant reviews and browse the internet.  Some have controls that won’t work while driving while others don’t and some are working on voice cammands.

Aren’t states banning texting while driving? A lot of good these will do if states just ban using them while driving.  I think we have enough distractions on the road and in the car don’t we?

A brutally cold air mass is on the way for the weekend with high temps in the 30s and lows in the teens for many areas.  Wind chills will likely be in the single digits across many areas on Saturday and Sunday mornings.  You’ve read about it here all week and there’s really nothing more to say.

The chance for any mixed precip tomorrow night is still there but is quite low.  If you see a snowflake or two good for you!  It will be the exclamation point, as stated yesterday, on the coming cold.

Stay warm!

You need to check out this video.

A woman is facing charges because she flew off the reservation after a restaurant screwed up her order.

http://bit.ly/7F7U8I

Since we kicked off the new year we are running about 11.4 degrees below average overall with certain days running almost 20 below average at the Charleston International Airport.  The air mass coming for Friday through Sunday will likely bust through those numbers, and could do so quite easily.  I still think most of the guidance is running too warm and I’m basing that off of observations from the current outbreak of cold temps. For example, last Thursday and Friday, when I was on the evening shift, our forecasts called for 40s during the day beginning Saturday and continuing through the 7 day forecast.  At that same time, model statistics were spitting out lower 50s for the period we are in right now, and we know that’s not happening.  Those same statistics are advertising lower to middle 40s for daytime highs Friday through Sunday.  I just don’t buy it.  I think this is another example of how computer models still have a hard time dealing with low-level Arctic air.  A perfect example is today.  Model output statistics, or MOS, advertised high temperatures in the middle 40s.  In actuality, our high temperatures are solidly in the lower 40s.  The error is small, but if there is an error of 2-4 degrees for a 12-24 hour forecast, think about the error possibilities as we head into the 72-120 hour range.  That’s where the problem lies.  As you move on through time, the tiny error in the early periods grows into a larger error.

High temperatures will likely struggle to reach the upper 30s Friday through Sunday with overnight lows in the teens.  Northwest winds will push wind chills into the single digits late at night and during the morning hours.  Single digit wind chills = BRUTAL for this part of the country

This air mass will add extra stress to pipes and other cold sensitive materials.  Keep your cold weather action plans in place.

Another part of the discussion is the threat of snow showers Thursday night into Friday morning.  Although snow is possible, I still think the cold air will be the real story by Friday.  We can’t completely discount the precip threat though and I will devote more time tomorrow and Thursday on discussing the potential for snow and ice.  It is just way too early to talk about totals and impacts especially since we are dealing with a marginal situation at best.  There is also a more interesting looking feature for snow potential showing up in the guidance for Friday night into Saturday.  A couple of computer models are trying to form another wave of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and then up the Carolina coast late Friday.  If that does occur, the possibility of accumulating snowfall would increase.  In fact, I’m a little more nervous about that one, than I am with the initial moisture surge Thursday night and Friday morning.

I’ll steal a line from yesterday’s blog about the snow threat:  Don’t buy into the hype just yet!  It is very rare to see snow here and a lot of things have to come together for it to occur.  It is way too early to forecast details this far in advance.

In closing, keep the blankets handy, grab some hot chocolate or cider, throw another log on the fire, and dream of warmer days!

This video shot by a witness to Monday’s courthouse shooting in Las Vegas.

What is amazing to me…the lack of sirens (until the very end)...just gunshots.

Before you buy into the hype that will be building in chat rooms, blogs, and computer generated forecasts over the next couple of days, let me be clear! As it stands right now, the snow potential is negligible at best Thursday night into Friday.  We’re looking at about a 30-40% shot and what does fall, if anything, should be light based off of what we’re seeing right now.  The scattered snow showers expected will likely be nothing more than an exclamation point on the brutally cold air mass that will arrive Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  We will continue to monitor trends in the guidance over the next couple of days, but the cold temperatures will likely be the big story.

The air mass set to head south for the weekend will bust right through the numbers we have experienced over the past several days.  We have been running about 15-20 degrees below average and this air mass could bring temperatures 20-25 degrees below average.  I’m thinking widespread middle to upper 30s for highs and teens for lows are completely possible during this period.

Some may allow the headlines to be stolen by the risk of a few snow showers, but I am standing firm.  The coming cold temperatures will likely impact us to a greater extent than any snowflake will.  Of course, we are still a few days out and things can change.  If more moisture becomes available or the upper level disturbance is stronger, the threat for winter weather could increase.  But as I see it right now, cold is king in this pattern, not snow.

It’s not quite the frozen tundra, but dang it’s cold out there!

I find it hard to complain about mid to upper 20s when I just left Ohio where it was 11…but seriously…below 30 degrees, is below 30 degrees. It doesn’t matter where you’re from, or what you’re used to…it’s cold.

Really not much more to say—it is getting cold—and it will get colder as we head through the next couple of days.  We are going to live through a very rare event, in fact a couple of them, over the coming days. 

Number one:  7 days in a row of high temperatures that will likely be no higher than the 40s and low temperatures no higher than freezing. 
Number 2:  Several nights of sub-freezing temperatures along the beaches. 

Both of these scenarios are in the forecast, so get ready, the cold is here and it will be sticking around for a while.  In fact, this pattern could last for an additional week.

The next item that has caught my interest is the possibility of a storm later this week.  The models are hinting at something and with all of the cold air around we will have to keep a close eye on anything that fires up.  This is the type of pattern that likes to breed rogue storms that can show up virtually out of the blue with only a couple of days notice.  The models have a problem detecting these system because the severe cold overwhelms the system and doesn’t allow for proper analysis.  For now the forecast will remain cold and dry through the week, but that could change.  Stay tuned!

Cold weather fans are rejoicing, beach bums are gnashing their teeth, and those of us in the middle are worried about our soon to be soaring electric bills as the first major blast of Arctic air threatens the southeastern United States this weekend. 

I know you’re probably thinking, eh, no big deal, it will be cold for a couple of days, and then we’ll be back in the 60s.  Usually, that’s a pretty good bet, but this time looks different.  The chatter is really ramping up in the weather community about the duration of this coming cold event for much of the eastern half of the country.

Guidance is showing temperatures running 10-15 degrees below average this coming week.  That translates to high temperatures a couple of degrees either side of 45 with widespread 20s at night.  Several surges of Arctic air will head south so some days will be colder than that as the fresh Arctic air arrives.  And if you think 5-7 days of temperatures like that is miserable, we may be headed for a repeat the next week.  The idea of the coldest first 10-15 days of a new year in 25 years is looking more and more like a reality across the eastern US as a whole.

Then we have to watch for storms firing up along the boundary of the cold Arctic air and the warmer temperatures to the south.  No guarantees, but definitely something we will have to watch.

So gather the fire wood, find the blankets, dust off the heavy coats, make sure your gloves are ready to go, and grab a hat, Old Man Winter is coming and he may stay a while.  Hopefully he won’t!

The images below are courtesy of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

It’s New Year’s Eve. Time to celebrate and have a good time and most importantly live to see another day.

Be careful tonight and have a designated driver before you go out! If you plan on drinking, go ahead and let somebody else drive. It’s not worth risking your life or somebody else’s. Not to mention, the DUI laws became a lot tougher last February and it’s not something employers look too highly upon on your record!

Need any other reason? Watch the video link.

I don’t know if it’s possible to dislike him any more than most already do, but geez.  It keeps getting worse.

Now he wants the custody court battle over his son open to the media. Hmmm. I wonder why?  So he can promote his supposed reality show coming out??  He even has a bodyguard!  Really, Levi, you are not that important.  Well, I guess when you think about it, there are probably a list of people who want to give him what he deserves.

I just don’t understand the obsession with this story and especially why the media outlets (especially the Today Show) are giving him so much air time.  That’s exactly what he wants.  My life would be a lot better if I never have to hear his name again.

Cold weather lovers (and haters for that matter), get ready!  If the pressure pattern that our guidance is showing does indeed develop, much of the eastern half of the United States will be sent into a deep freeze for the first 7-10 days of January.  This could be the coldest 10 days as a whole for the US in 25 years if current guidance verifies.  We still have a lot of time to watch this, and things could change, but as of now here’s what I think may happen.

So what is causing this? It is called the Greenland Block.  This refers to a very large and strong area of high pressure that pretty much sets up shop near Greenland.  This forces air to flow up and around the high causing the jetstream pattern to amplify.

Think of the atmosphere as a river, which it essentially is a river of air.  If you toss a big rock into that river, in this case the high pressure system, you block the flow.  So the water, or air in this case, is forced to move around the rock.  As that occurs, the jetstream begins to dip and carve out large troughs on each side of the high.  This allows for cold air, which is very dense, to flow into the troughs.  Since the cold air is very dense and the high pressure ridge is very strong, the pattern becomes locked into place.  This can last for several days or even weeks.

We expect this pattern to develop beginning next week and it could persist through the first 10-15 days.  The strength of the pattern is still in question, but most indications are a prolonged cold period is possible for about 7-10 days across much of the eastern half of the United States with the possibility of hard freezes down to the citrus growers in Florida.  Some portions of the region could be 15-20 degrees below seasonal averages for several days.  If that’s not enough for you cold lovers, we may even see opportunities for snow across portions of the Deep South.  No promises of snow for us, but the cold air will likely be in place.  All we would need is the right set up.

This could be a very interesting weather pattern developing so stay tuned!

I usually never make resolutions, but this year I think I might. I set enough goals daily and monthly. Just check the dozens of lists etched on post-it notes all over my desk and apartment. I’m even so tied to them, that if there wasn’t something on the list that I still did, I write it down and check it off. Seriously.

So this year I’m planning to save more money and work on my road rage. What about you?

The chatter in the weather community over the past two weeks has been the swing to a much colder weather pattern for most of the northern hemisphere beginning the last couple of days of December into at least the first couple of weeks of January.  In fact, some indications are we could be looking at the coldest open to the new year in 20-30 years. 

It also looks like the active storm track will continue through this period which could increase snow potential across the southern US since there will be so much cold air around.  Precipitation is expected to be above average, but not as wet as December.

Hopefully we will moderate some by the end of the month, but even that looks like a bit of a stretch at this point.  Most indications are for an extended period of colder than normal weather to continue through the month.

JANUARY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE:  COLDER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIP: WETTER THAN AVERAGE

Idiots.

My first reaction hearing Dabo Swinney had suspended four Tigers for the Music City Bowl game Sunday. Their crime: violating curfew.

From the State:

“Four Tigers reserves have been suspended for today’s Music City Bowl against Kentucky for curfew violations, most notably defensive tackles Jamie Cumbie and Rennie Moore. The others were third-string tight end Durrell Barry and receiver Kyle Johnson.“

Unless there was a hurricane, death, famine, or something catastrophic, there was no reason to come in late. Their actions were selfish. They let the team down and they deserve to be punished.

Going on a bit of rant here so be prepared.

Cities spell problems for college teams. That’s one of the reasons I’ve always said Clemson has always appeared to have a cleaner program than South Carolina. In Columbia, there’s a ton of problems to be found. More bars. More strip clubs. There’s more of an underworld there.

In Clemson, it’s the university, and a lot of open space. Yes, boredom can lead to problems too but you really have to go out of your way to find trouble. In Columbia or any other city for that matter, trouble can find you.

As customary Lacett tradition, I allowed myself to open 1 Christmas gift on Christmas Eve.

Since I knew pretty much everything I was getting, I picked the rectangle box that looked like an X-Box game and sure enough, I had NBA Live 10 in my hands.

It’s been a couple years since I bought an incarnation of the game and I got to say, I was impressed.

They got this thing called Live DNA. You got to be hooked up to XBox Live but once you are, it’s actually pretty amazing. The “DNA” copies what’s happening in the real world and places it in the video game.

So last night, I decided to play the Sixers against the Bulls. Allen Iverson has been out with an injury in real life and because of that, he was out in the game as well.

Also, I can load up the game of the day, which also happens to be the real life game of the day. Lakers vs. Cavs Christmas Day? Please it already happened in my game at Mount Pleasant.

On top of all this, while the game loads up, an ESPN sports radio update comes on.

Yes indeed, I’m going to be very busy during my vacation.

The more I look at this system and the way everything will likely play out on Friday, the more I think the Lowcountry may see 70 degrees.  It looks like the warm sector will be solidly in place across the region by Friday morning with a stubborn cold air wedge in place up here where I am in the upstate.  While I see a cold rain late Thursday into Friday, a warm rain will be quite possible for the lower part of the state.  Most guidance has the region in the middle 60s but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a run for 70 as ensemble guidance is now suggesting that.

By the way, I just checked the numbers for the month of December so far and CHS is running about average in the temperature department for the month.  I would say by the end of this week, we will probably see above normal readings for the month, and then maybe cancel out the warmth somewhat next week.  Just looking at the preliminary data, Outside of Charleston and Beaufort, about the rest of the state is running below average.  For example Columbia is running about 3 degrees below average, GSP -3.4, and Myrtle Beach is almost 2 below for the month.  Crossing into North Carolina, Charlotte is running about 5 degrees below average for the month. We have less than 10 days to go, so we will be watching those numbers carefully for long range forecast verification.  No reason to talk about the monthly precipitation forecast, that one has already verified.  Now we are just watching the rain bucket to see how far we go over the monthly average for December.  Hint:  It’s going to be a hefty surplus!

Ok!  Enough work for now, getting back to the family.  I will try to have the January outlook posted by this weekend, if not by then, it will definitely be up by Monday. 

I’m not sure if you had a chance to check out the little diddy I did on the year in lowcountry sports. If you hadn’t, I made your life a little easier by posting it to the blog.

I think it’s good and all but….nah you know what? I got a problem with my own story. I mean, I’m really annoyed with my own work.

I think it’s missing a lot of stuff.

Looking back, I could have made this the counton2 version of “We didn’t start the fire” but I wanted to pick the big things we worked on and went back from there.

Thing is, I just don’t think it worked. Now after watching it, there was a lot of stuff I wanted to put in that now I wish I did.

So here is the stuff I wanted to put in but I just didn’t have time for. Consider this my apology.

Problems for South Carolina and Clemson in Bowl games, The Bridge run, CofC’s stunning upsets over Davidson, The rise of the Bulldogs basketball team, Pat Venditte of the Dogs, Ja’Quavan Smalls unfortunate death, The Citadel’s unfortunate running backs, and of course, the end of Andre Roberts fantastic run at the Citadel.

I know it’s not much but please know I didn’t forget these things. There’s only so much time in a day, and there was only so much time allotted for my story.

I’m writing tonight from my parents’ home in Spartanburg, SC where it is a balmy 34 degrees (sarcasm).  I see it is in the upper 40s back home in the Lowcountry, so how about everybody go outside and blow some warmer air toward the northwest for me! 

I just remembered I haven’t posted anything since last Friday night’s flooding, which by they way caused me to have a very embarrassing 30 minutes at the TV station when my truck got stuck in the mud just as everyone was leaving to go home for the night!  Imagine that, the one time you need the 4 wheel drive your vehicle supposedly has, it doesn’t work!  Rest assured it is being repaired this week! But that’s enough on that one.

The storm coming for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will provide us with more rain and maybe even a thunderstorm or two.  Milder air will surge ahead of this system.  Ensemble guidance is suggesting high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s, perhaps even 70 or higher on Christmas Day before chilly temperatures return for next weekend into the first part of next week.  As it stands right now, due to the strength of a wedge of cold air east of the mountains, it will be hard to see temperatures surge much higher than the middle 60s.  However, if that wedge is weak, 70s aren’t out of the question.  At this time, the potential for prolonged heavy rainfall doesn’t appear to be very high, but it won’t take much to cause additional flooding problems considering the amount of rain we have experienced over the past couple of weeks.  Be sure to check in with Rob and Joey frequently as you make plans.

After the Christmas Day storm clears the region, Saturday and Sunday look pretty good.  You can expect sunshine with cooler afternoon highs generally between 50 and 55, perhaps a tad cooler.  Average highs for this time of year are around 60, so these numbers would be a good 5-10 degrees below the seasonal “norms.“  It looks like freezing temperatures at night are likely again across much of the area as well.

Another storm is expected to affect the southeastern US by the middle of next week which could bring more rain to us and perhaps another round of winter weather for our friends just to the northwest.  We will keep an eye on this system due to the southern track, its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic, and the excessive rainfall we have experienced so far this month.

The medium-range guidance is suggesting another storm could impact us by the first couple of days of 2010.

Below you will find the NOAA forecasts for temperature and precip over the next 14 days.  Full size versions of these maps can be found through NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
6-10 day outlooks

8-14 day outlooks

I will be back on Monday, December 28 on News 2 Today.  Can’t wait to see ya’ll and maybe I’ll have a couple of goofy Marthers family Christmas stories to share!  Until then, I may throw down another blog entry or two.

Take care and enjoy the rest of your holiday season!

Listening to the radio today and heard a couple more bizarre Tiger stories.

According to the Wall Street Journal, a hush-hush deal was made between Tiger Woods and the National Enquirer back in 2007. According to the article, Tiger was caught by a reporter in a church parking lot with a young lady. Apparently they even had photos! His people made an agreement NE’s publisher in which the story would not be exposed in exchange for a Tiger Woods cover story at one of the publisher’s other magazine’s. (A Men’s Health editor apparently resigned in disgust over this.) Although the publisher has denied these accounts, several people close to the situation have gone on record confirming the report.

Moreover, there’s disputing reports on how Tiger Woods is spending his free time. One report said he’s has locked himself in one of his two homes and watches nothing but cartoons and eating cold cereal. He refuses to watch ESPN because he wants to escape all the Tiger reports.

Another report says he’s flying on a jet plane, pleading with sponsors not to drop him.

And then there’s the one about his wife definitely filing for divorce.

My take: It’s going to get a whole lot worse for Tiger before it gets better. Tiger’s life isn’t ruined but it’s going to be a while before things get back to normal.

The rain is now falling and it looks like we will probably see 1-3” of rain across the region today with some areas seeing even higher totals.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect because of the potential for heavy rain falling onto already saturated ground.  We may have an issue this afternoon with some falling trees if the wind picks up enough, especially along the coast.

Watch out for coastal flooding problems as well with a strong onshore wind.

We will clear out tomorrow with mainly dry conditions expected.  It will be chilly this weekend though with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

I’ve had a busy day, but nowhere near as busy as my good buddy Rob Fowler.  I tell you, I don’t know when he sleeps!  He has been going all day with Toys for Tots and it will be like this until the end of next week.

Here is the latest on the storm for Friday into early Saturday.  As of now, my call is 1-3” of rain with some locally higher amounts along the coast.  The weather service has hoisted a Flash Flood Watch for the coastal counties which looks pretty good to me.  It wouldn’t surprise me though if they have to add inland counties tomorrow if rainfall trends show a higher likelihood of flooding away from the coast.  Keep in mind, we are running about 4” above normal for the month and we are only a little more than halfway through, with a storm on the way again by the latter part of next week and probably another on the way to ring in the new year.  If this pattern keeps up, we could be looking at significant flooding problems along the major rivers over the coming weeks.  But that is away down the road right now.  Back to the storm at hand.  The best chance for rain will arrive a couple of hours after sunrise on Friday and persist into the overnight hours.  I do think most of us should be drying out on Saturday but expect a cold and blustery day as the storm departs to our northeast.

Temps will struggle to hit 50 tomorrow, in fact they probably won’t except right along the coast, with 40s to near 50 again on Saturday.

It looks like we will be headed for a pretty decent cold snap on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with day time highs in the 40s to lower 50s and overnight lows in the 20s away from the beaches.

Just think about this for a second as we stew over the College of Charleston’s victory over Charleston Southern this evening.

Just last year, the College lost both games to the Citadel.

This year, the Citadel lost to CSU who then lost to the College.

This year, the Citadel later almost dethrowned Michigan State.

My question is, what happens when the College of Charleston plays North Carolina?

It just goes to show you, as the cliche goes, anything can happen in College Hoops. Teams are so young and inexperienced, they don’t know how to “play up” every night.

Can you say Cougar upset?

Probably not, but it’s fun thinking about…..

Just finished looking over the latest guidance package, both in the short term, and in the longer tern, and boy does it look like more rain and cold are on the way.  The only difference is this time we will have a couple of shots of Arctic air on the playing field too.

Storm one is developing now over the Gulf and will lift northeast tomorrow with rain developing over the region by Friday morning.  As the rain falls into the cold air in place, don’t be surprised if you see a sleet pellet or snowflake, but everything will quickly change over to a cold rain.  I am not expecting any winter weather problems at this time.  The storm will track too close to us this time for anything like that.  However, get ready, it is going to be cold.  I don’t think anyone, except for maybe the immediate beachfront, sees 50 Friday or Saturday as most of us will be stuck in the 40s.  I’m also a little nervous about heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding.  As it looks now, we could see 1-3” of rain, depending on the exact track of the storm.  Stay with us for the latest info on this developing storm.  We will know more tomorrow.

After storm one passes (notice I’m assigning a number to it… I think you can figure out what that means), a pretty darn cold day is in store on Sunday with partly to mostly sunny conditions and highs in the 40s.  Low temperatures Monday and Tuesday morning will likely go well below freezing away from the coast with high temperatures still in the 40s in many areas.

I think we will warm up a bit on Wednesday ahead of our next system, probably into the 50s, and then here comes storm two.  This one could be a doozy and drop a lot of snow across much of the country.  That would mean a white Christmas for some, but most likely not here in the Lowcountry.  This one is a long way off, so we will continue to monitor it and give you the latest.

Storm three is already being picked up on the modeling, and if the modeling is correct, it could be approaching the east coast about 3-4 days after Christmas.

We could be getting ready to go into a pretty decent little cold snap that could last for several days or perhaps a week or more compared to what we’ve seen so far this cool season.

The morning guidance package is coming in and it looks pretty darn cold beginning Friday and lasting straight through the new year.  Now, individual days may be warmer than others, but the overall look for the last 10 days of the month is a chilly one.  Based off of this run of the guidance, 40s are on the way for Friday, 30s for Saturday, and 40s for Sunday.  Now this is just based off of one run, but I have noticed a downward trend in the guidance over the past 48 hours.  We will have to see if this trend verifies.  If it does, Saturday could be quite cold.  After that, 40s and 50s could run the table through much of next week during the day with lows in the 20s and 30s.

Throw in several opportunities for precip as the southern stream remains active and there might be something other than rain falling from the sky across portions of the southeastern US.  We will work on those details as we move forward.

I’ve heard several people say this year they aren’t sending cards. I’m usually on top of it by now myself. But working extra hours and trying to finish up the millions of other things to do has left me no time for anything holiday.  Haven’t bought the first present (not buying much this year anyway) and haven’t even considered finding time to send Christmas cards.

Is it just me or has Christmas snuck up on all of us this year?

I can’t hog all the interviews. Then again, after talking to Dusty, I think was ready to retire.

But there were other wrestlers and with Alan on hand, he couldn’t resist talking to Buff Bagwell.

No Wrestler could talk like Dusty Rhodes. Don’t get me wrong, they can talk but NOT LIKE DUSTY RHODES.

The guy is a legend and he was in town Saturday for a show in Summerville.

Check out the interview

Tiger Woods announced late Friday he was taking an indefinite leave from golf. Smart move. Right now it’s about priority and if Tiger really cares about his wife, his marriage, and that relationship, devoting all his attention to it would be in his best interest.

Here’s my only fear, I read a tabloid earlier today that basically said Elin gave Tiger an ultimatum: “It’s golf… or me.“ (Say what you will about tabloids, they’ve been awfully good at breaking stories.)

I really hope that’s not true. Let’s say they do patch things up. Well then, you can’t possibly tell me Tiger won’t forget that he was forced into quiting. He’ll resent her and this relationship will be in even worse shape than it is now.

A break is what Tiger needs. I don’t think it should be an out and out retirement.

I would love to see these two reconcile but I don’t know if that’s possible or realistic. There’s a lot of hurt there and I can only hope the old saying is true, “time heals all wounds.“